Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton
Kid,
Speaking of predictions, let's look back to December of 2006 and see what you predicted for 2007:
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 06, 2006
Predictions for 2007
Increase in energy prices will cut into corporate earnings as well as consumer spending. Inflation will pick up due to higher energy prices but the market will not drop a lot. The DOW will not go down to 5,000 as some predict. It will drop and the NASDAQ will drop but this is a correction due to the fact that it was too pricey. Real estate will continue to sell off and higher interest rates will cause less would be buyers to take the plunge.
Democrats will suggest relief for the poor as soaring energy costs create hardship. The Iraq war continues to be a drain on the economy.
The second quarter of 2007 sees weaker corporate earnings and a declining dow.
Tighter supplies of petroleum products due to resource depletion and trouble in the Middle East will convince many automobile buyers to invest in fuel efficient transportation such as 200mpg scooters that are super cheap, low end microcars like the Yaris, and of course the pricey hybrids.
You will see more grown men on bikes than before. People spend less.
http://hdrkid.blogspot.com/2006/12/predictions-for-2007.html
Let’s see how you did here:
Increase in energy prices will cut into corporate earnings as well as consumer spending.
It’s trivially true that increased expenses cut into earnings. It’s trivial because it doesn’t tell us anything that we didn’t already know. You didn’t actually say that energy prices would go up but…
I’ll give you this one.
Inflation will pick up due to higher energy prices but the market will not drop a lot.
I'm assuming that when you said inflation "will pick up" you meant that the rate of inflation would be greater in 2007 than in 2006 - the rate would increase.
The inflation rate for the three years coming into 2007 was:
2004 2.68%
2005 3.39%
2006 3.24%
Granted. the 4th quarter 2007 rate of inflation was high. October-December saw monthly inflation rates of 3.5%, 4.3% and 4.3%. But the annual rate of inflation was still only 2.87%. That’s 0.37% less than the rate for 2006.
The second part was “but the market won’t drop a lotâ€. It didn’t drop at all – it grew 5% (the DOW and NASDAQ – see below).
You got those two entirely wrong.
The DOW will not go down to 5,000 as some predict. It will drop and the NASDAQ will drop but this is a correction due to the fact that it was too pricey.
The DOW opened on the first day of trading in January 2007 at 12, 500. On the last day of trading in December it closed at 13,250. The NASDAQ (IXIC) opened 2006 at 2500 and closed the year at 2600. The DOW and NASDAQ indexes matched each other with 5% growth during 2007.
You called for decline; you got growth. You got both indexes entirely wrong.
Real estate will continue to sell off and higher interest rates will cause less would be buyers to take the plunge.
It’s hard to comment on this one because you don’t seem to know what you’re talking about. Sorry – but that’s a fair assessment. You can’t have a “sell-off†if you don’t have buyers. A sell-off requires eager buyers shopping for great deals. You say that buyers are unwilling to take the plunge during a continued sell-off. You can't have it both ways.
In any case there was no sell-off. Sales went stagnant.
I won’t give you a hit or miss here.
Democrats will suggest relief for the poor as soaring energy costs create hardship.
Again, trivially true. The Democrats will always suggest relief for the poor when (you fill in the blank here) occurs. It’s not so much a trivial truth as it is a truism.
I’ll give you this one. I’d give it to you even if you had written it as I did above, i.e. “(you fill in the blank here)â€.
The second quarter of 2007 sees weaker corporate earnings and a declining DOW.
Second quarter DOW growth was almost 15%. Though the DOW opened at 12,500 in January it sunk to 12,000 by the opening of the 2nd quarter. It closed the 2nd quarter at 13,300 and the growth continued well into the 3rd quarter when it topped at 14,000. 2nd quarter earnings were in line with 2nd quarter growth.
You got these two entirely wrong.
Tighter supplies of petroleum products due to resource depletion and trouble in the Middle East will convince many automobile buyers to invest in fuel efficient transportation such as 200mpg scooters that are super cheap, low end microcars like the Yaris, and of course the pricey hybrids.
Again, trivially true. Every time that fuel prices have a significant increase over time motorcycle, bicycle and motorized scooter sales increase. When fuel prices stabilize those sales drop back to their niche market sales level.
But I’ll give you this one even though I have no idea what the sales numbers actually were. (In all honesty I
should give you a miss here. Fuel prices were not driven by resource depletion.)
You will see more grown men on bikes than before. People spend less.
I don’t have a fracking clue what you mean here. I see a lot of grown men riding bikes every day. What’s the significance of seeing more men riding bikes…as opposed to women? Children? Not-so-grown men? Boys? Singing ducks?
Neither a hit nor a miss.
The Score Card:
Hit: 3
Miss: 6
Neither: 2
