The HDRkid Thread

[RainmanTime]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

Eh...why should I wait and "go easy" on the Kid now? Might as well show others what he really said last year (and what he is trying to recaste with the following quote):

Yesterday, I paid $2.46/gallon for gasoline, but it will soon go over $2.50, in fact, it might even punch past $3. Yet, when I told people that a dollar fifty a gallon was temporary few believed me.

But Back in August of 2008 HDRKID said:

<font color="blue"> HDRKID@08/05/08 06:27 AM [/COLOR] Right now, gasoline is going down in price. Most debunkers are happy. They claim that peak oil is a hoax. What I am predicting is that even though the price is falling now, come next year it will go up a lot.

Now we, of course, notice how he kept his "prediction" nice an vague by invoking the oh-so-specific measure of "a lot". But when gas prices were above $4/gallon, how he can classify price increases from $1.60/gallon up to now around $2.50/gallon as "a lot" escapes me... and I would guess others do not see the price rise as being "a lot" compared to what they paid last summer.

But we are not done yet:

In September of 2008 HDRKID said this:

<font color="blue"> HDRKID@09/13/08 07:26 AM [/COLOR]Yesterday I paid $4.19/gallon for gasoline, versus last week it was at $3.56 and most debunkers said it would soon be under $3/gal for gas. What a difference a week makes. We are running out of oil and soon we will see shortages and it will be rationed.

My prediction is that while prices may drop in the short term, long term we will see 5-7 as cheap. The big problem is not the price, but that I have gone into the future and seen shortages of food &amp; fuel.

And, of course, the Kid never tells us what "long term" specifically means. But given his previous prediction for oil going above $4/gallon in 2009, I think that is an indicator that rationing of fuel is not in our immediate future.

And how about this HDRKID hit from back in October of 2008?

<font color="blue"> HDRKID@10/12/08 07:34 PM [/COLOR]My prediction that gasoline would go over $4/gal came true, but now gas is below $3/gal where I live. Back in Jan 2007 it was $1.87/gallon. I expect that soon you will see shortages.

First, as I pointed out in my REPLY, he was now changing his prediction post-facto. He was claiming prices would NOT go above $4/gallon, but now here he was claiming that he predicted they would. But still, he predicted "soon you will see shortages". Here we are in May 2009 and no shortages on the horizon.

Plenty more nonsense. I even have one where HDRKID even admits that his gas price predictions were wrong! So if he, himself, is going to admit his predictions about gas prices were wrong, why bother listening to anything else he says on the topic? :D

RMT

 

[hdrkid]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

To Packerbacker:

I do not see a golden age. What I saw in astral was me waiting hours in a long line for half a loaf of bread. I saw a future where food and fuel are rationed. The ration cards are red and blue.

Also, roving gangs, cities on fire, burnt out hulls of cars littering roads, and the end of our way of life.

To rain:
Today, the dow was down again. Dollar hit a yearly low against the euro, and oil was up. Unemployment is rising. States now are running out of money. Since we talked gas went from 2.45 to 2.65, and $3/gal for gas is not far away. People say this is a sign of economic recovery. If that were true, then last year when I was paying $4.39 per gallon things were great.

As we run out of oil, our economy grinds to a halt.

Peak oil is real. We cannot expect to pay arabs with worthless green pieces of paper for oil. Back in 2005 I told people to stockpile food and fuel. I told people that cities would not be safe.

Now in 2009 people like Peter Schiff tell people to stockpile. I gave that call back in 2005. Good remote viewers saw collapse back in the 1990's.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG5eS7h6hvY

 

[Darby]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

From Bird Brain's Blog Site

Monday, September 26, 2005
Future Event - Major Pandemic
I bought today the magazine National Geographic. It talked about the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919 and how it stated. A major plague that killed 50 million to 100 million people. The researchers are now worried that a major influenza epidemic could kill 180-360 million people.

Well, that is very conservative. Actually what will happen is that the bird flu will kill over 6 billion people. And it will bring down the population on the planet to below 200 million. All large cities will become empty. The few people who do survive will be living in areas that are cold. As cold inactivates the virus

Only The Kid, on a planet this size and a population of only 200 million would end up standing in line for bread. Hey, Bird Brain! Go bake your own damned bread. There isn't another soul for a hundred miles of you.

Yikes...

Goo-ooo-ROO taught me a new spelling word today. It is M-O-R-O-N.

 

[RainmanTime]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

Since we talked gas went from 2.45 to 2.65, and $3/gal for gas is not far away.

The problem is, you "RVed the future" and told us it was going to hit $4/gallon this year (2009). You saw that your original $4/gallon prediction was not going to wash this year, so you attempted to re-caste your prediction as $3/gallon. Why on earth would someone who is "RVing the future" ever need to do that???

And it also looks like it is time to resurrect the average US regular grade gas price chart:

Note on this chart that the average price has not even reached $2.45 yet (5/13/2009), although I expect it to with this coming week's update. So when the Kid says about that prices went from "2.45 to 2.65" either he is lying or he is again quoting a spot price that he saw on the street.

The Kid is shifty this way... even though I pinned him down last year to admit that he refers to US average price for regular grade, that was when his local spot prices were already over $4/gallon...and he was hoping that by shifting to US average price he could avoid being proven wrong (again). So now, with the above, he is trying to shift back to spot prices in the hope that he can say "see, I told you prices would go over $3/gallon." Completely ignoring the fact that he had previously predicted $4/gallon this year.

But I will state my prediction once again: The average US price for regular gas, as shown on this continually-updated chart, will not go above $3/gallon for this summer driving season! You can take that to the bank! And another thing you can take to the bank is that, once the Kid sees a spot price above $3/gallon, he will take a picture of it and post it here saying "the debunkers were laughing when I predicted gas would go over $3/gallon, but here is what I just saw today."

And then there is his prediction of $4/gallon this year:

HDRKID on 08/03/08 08:05 AM <font color="red">I still stand by my prediction that come next year 2009 we will see gasoline go over $4/gallon [/COLOR]

Poor, poor, HDRKID. Maybe he should be standing in line for free bread handouts. It is clear he is not gonna make his daily bread on "RVing the future". :D

RMT

 

[hdrkid]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

To Darby:
Bird Flu was a problem when it first appeared in 1997 because we did not have a vaccine. Currently, we have a vaccine so itis no longer as much of a threat. We do not have a vaccine for swine flu, but it only kills approx 1% of people who get it so worst case scenario a few million die. Life goes on...

Growing food is important because I see massive shortages in the future. When using HDR astral time travel the view is one of complete collapse. I do not predict economic recovery, I predict economic ruin!

To rain:
Making fun of me and my predictions will not prevent them. The ghawar oil field is a supergiant where Saudi Arabia gets most of its oil. It is past peak production. Although our economic crisis has cause less oil to be consume, this will not keep prices down because every year less oil is available.

Today North Korea fired off more missiles. Yesterday it detonated an atom bomb approx in size to the one we drop on Hiroshima.

TAKEN FROM http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2009/05/the-18-gigayear.html
The US government, for example, spends on “Defense” (including “preemptive” warfare) and Homeland Security, 8 times what it spends on educating the next generation. There is enough nuclear weaponry in storage around the world to kill every living creature on the planet several times over. Clearly, we’re a species with poor odds of surviving indefinitely.

My thoughts exactly.

Here are unemployment figures
460K (8/7/08)
445K
435K
429K
451K (9/4/08)
445K
461K
493K
498K (10/2/08)
477K
463K
479K
485K
484K (11/6/08)
515K
543K
530K
515K (12/4/08)
575K
556K
586K
491K
470K (1/8/09)
527K
585K
591K
631K (2/5/09)
627K
631K
670K
645K (3/5/09)
658K
644K
675K
674K (4/2/09)
663K
613K
645K
635K
605K (5/7/09)
643K
631K (5/21/09) - preliminary

U.S. home prices fall at record pace
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-fall-at-record-pace-case-shiller

The banks are insolvent. The banks are not loaning money.

What did I predict in 2005? That real estate would fall like a house of cards. What we see is no evidence of a recovery in home prices. This stock market has been artificially propped up by our gov, but the reality is that sales are going down.


we are retracing 1930's
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2009/05/15/were-tracking-the-1930s-bear-market/

Obama says we have no money
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ4RU9rlnbM

Peter Schiff says
TAKEN FROM
"Once again, the facts do not support the euphoria. Over the past few months, the government has literally blasted the economy with trillions of new dollars conjured from the ether. The fact that this "stimulus" has blown some air back into our deflating consumer-based bubble economy, and given a boost to an oversold stock market, is hardly evidence that the problems have been solved. It is simply an illusion, and not a very good one at that. By throwing money at the problem, all the government is creating is inflation. Although this can often look like growth, it is no more capable of creating wealth than a hall of mirrors is capable of creating people. "

 

[RainmanTime]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

To rain:
Making fun of me and my predictions will not prevent them.

Actually, just the opposite is indeed true. Back in the day when you were ready to bet big money on your prediction about Hillary being president, I made fun of you. She did not become president. And every single prediction you have tried to make about gas prices (not oil prices, but those are almost as shakey) have not come true.

If I were as weak as you in coming to conclusions, I would say that my making fun of you actually does show to be effective in preventing your predictions! But I am not that weak in logical thinking.

RMT

 

[Darby]

Re: Summer 09: The failure of the international money

Bird Flu was a problem when it first appeared in 1997 because we did not have a vaccine. Currently, we have a vaccine so itis no longer as much of a threat.

Who gives a fracking damn about whether or not we have a vaccine? You said that 6 billion people were going to die from Bird Brain Flu. You've said it all - you're looking at headlines and guessing. That's all there is to your "predictions".

You are dismissed - out of hand, in fact.

 

[RainmanTime]

The Bogosity of Peak Oil

Peak Oil is real, eh Kid? Well, sorry to have to break it to you, but another of MY predictions is showing evidence that your Peak Oil is just another scare tactic:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/05/28/arctic.oil.gas.reserves/index.html

<font color="red"> "Continental shelves beneath the retreating polar ice caps of the Arctic may hold almost double the amount of oil previously found in the region, scientists say.

In new findings, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Arctic may be home to 30 percent of the planet's undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13 percent of its undiscovered oil." [/COLOR]

Awwwwww, too bad, Kiddy. Hope you are not too sad that another of your gloom and doom predictions is swirling down the toilet.

RMT

 

[recall15]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

Peak Oil is real, eh Kid? Well, sorry to have to break it to you, but another of MY predictions is showing evidence that your Peak Oil is just another scare tactic:

 

[RainmanTime]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

RMT

 

[hdrkid]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To recall:
Three days ago I paid $2.79/gallon for gasoline. I believe during WWII the ration for gas card was 3 gallons per week. There are more events up ahead in the distance; however, rather than try to render analysis on what I see it is better to state the events and allow you to arrive at your own conclusions. Sadly, many of the events such as food shortages will have an adverse effect on our economy.

To rain:
I do not expect that all my predictions will come true, but over 90% will. I stated that I saw Hillary win in 27 out of 30 timelines, and Obama win in only one. OK on the basis of that I declare her. However, the long shot dark horse candidate came in. That will happen from time to time. I also said that on 10% of the lines WWIII never happens. That said I stock up my shelter in hope of being able to survive.

To Darby:
Right now we are seeing collapse of our nation’s manufacturing base thru an economic recession. Expect as things get worse all systems start to break down. Already where I live out in the boonies they have told us that the state will no longer repair roads or send the sheriff out - we are on our own.

The number of cases of swine flu is over 15,000
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-05-29-voa40.cfm

Of course the debunkers who laugh at me and yell HOAX can now claim that I did not predict anything, because it was obvious. Just because you do not see swine flu on TV everyday does not mean it went away.

In other news Korea fired off more missiles yesterday. They are willing to sell nuclear technology to the highest bidder, including terrorists. Expect Obama to do very little.

North Korea is planning to launch even more missiles
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8074527.stm

TAKEN FROM http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2009-05-27-chrysler-hearing_N.htm
"The future of Chrysler hangs in the balance as it heads to court Wednesday to ask a bankruptcy judge for permission to sell the bulk of its assets to a group headed by Italy's Fiat in hopes of saving itself from liquidation. Attorneys for Chrysler maintain that the deal with Fiat Group is the company's only hope to avoid being sold off piece by piece"

A debunker told me that Chrysler was going to come out stronger after the bankruptcy. If you believe that there is a bridge in Brooklyn you might want to buy in addition to a Chrysler car to drive over it.

http://cgi.ebay.com/BILL-OF-SALE-TO-THE-BROOKLYN-BRIDGE-NEW-YORK-LQQK-@-IT_W0QQitemZ110395035598QQcmdZViewItemQQimsxq20090526?IMSfp=TL090526152004r30632


Dollar Tree profit up 39%
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090527-706778.html

There are many ways to look at this, because dime stores did well in the depression and 100 yen stores during Japan's lost decade. That said movies were a nickel in the great depression and now we have $5 cinema. Truth be told you do not save money because the cheap junk they sell breaks super quick.

Problem banks at 15 year high
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aKYwjGZlsk9o&amp;refer=home

Foreclosures at a record high
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-delinquencies29-2009may29,0,260044.story

Saudi forecast $75 oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aaeNtchbnTcU&amp;refer=home

 

[RainmanTime]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To rain:
I do not expect that all my predictions will come true, but over 90% will.

Prove it by showing me your numbers. Because as far as our accounting of your predictions right here in this thread, you are WAY below 90%, and likely pretty far below 50%!

So put up or shut up.
RMT

 

[Angleochoas]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

Just a mute point to play into debate'

I keep hearing about "peak" oil prices.

Okay, with any non replenishable, is one not going to always see "peak" prices inevitably really?
Like sure, sometimes you'll hit a big "find" and there will be a surplus on the market for awhile, but in reality - forget the five year, ten year charts - do the 100, 500 year charts lol.
I see it hard to fathom that 2009 will be "peak" oil pricing compared to a hypethetical price say down the road in ... oh 2250 ^^
Just as well, is anyone surprised it was so cheap back in 1600?
(If anyone raises the cost of production vs. technology; yeah yeah lol).

If someone back in 1850 said "one day this'here oil will be worth alot more cause it don't grow like plants" - would anyone coin him Nostradamus?

Hey HDR, betcha oil is more "peak" in 2011.

 

[hdrkid]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Angleochoas:
Chevy Volt is supposed to come out November 2010. You do not need a time machine to see that the appeal of a $40,000 electric car with limited range - is very limited indeed. I applaud the visionaries who built it, but my dad who can afford one will not buy one for the simple reason that the range is limited.

To rain:
OK imagine you time travel back to 1969 after the Apollo moon landing and explain to people what 2009 looks like. They imagine a glorious 21st century with men on mars and flying cars.

It is your thankless task to explain that there are no more trips to the moon, the Concorde supersonic jet no longer flies. Both GM &amp; Chrysler went bankrupt our industry was shutdown and sent to Red China which has missiles pointed at us.

They will can you a liar and say things like "In the future GM does not go bankrupt, they make flying cars, and I don't have to be stuck in traffic for hours. Also, they build robots. Robots do all the work and people stay home and watch TV. You tell your robot, "mow the lawn and he does it!"

 

[RainmanTime]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To rain:
OK imagine you time travel back to 1969 after the Apollo moon landing and explain to people what 2009 looks like. They imagine a glorious 21st century with men on mars and flying cars.

It is your thankless task to explain that there are no more trips to the moon, the Concorde supersonic jet no longer flies. Both GM &amp; Chrysler went bankrupt our industry was shutdown and sent to Red China which has missiles pointed at us.

They will can you a liar and say things like "In the future GM does not go bankrupt, they make flying cars, and I don't have to be stuck in traffic for hours. Also, they build robots. Robots do all the work and people stay home and watch TV. You tell your robot, "mow the lawn and he does it!"

And what the frack does this have to do with your being consistently wrong when it comes to anything having to do with gas prices at the pump?

The summer pump price increases are almost at their peak. Using the US average price chart that I have posted above many times, I predict the peak will occur no later than my birthday (June 23rd). And it will be under $3/gallon.

RMT

 

[recall15]

Re: Goldman Raises End of 2009 Oil Price

quoted <font color="red"> Goldman Sachs raised its end of 2009 oil price forecast to $85 a barrel from $65 and introduced a new end of 2010 forecast of $95, the U.S. bank said in a research note.

"The recent rally in WTI (U.S. crude) prices is likely to be but the first stage in the oil price rally that we expect will accompany a recovery in economic activity," Goldman said in its note.

The U.S. oil price has jumped from nearly a five-year low of $32.40 a barrel in December to a new seven-month high of $69.05 on Tuesday [/COLOR]
end quoted from:
Link to news

 

[Darby]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

OK imagine you time travel back to 1969 after the Apollo moon landing and explain to people what 2009 looks like. They imagine a glorious 21st century with men on mars and flying cars.

Uhhh...no, we didn't imagine 2009 as being anything of a sort. And don't even bother...you weren't there in 1969 - I was.

 

[hdrkid]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Darby:
You do not have to wait until after WWIII to see what will happen. For example, even now we have "moon hoax" debunkers. People who claim we never went to the moon. Also, people who say that dinosaurs are not real. I know people who saw the 1969 moon shot. However, one day they will all be dead. A debunker will flap his arms and say "Look I'm flying to the moon." It requires no intellect to ridicule the hard work of others.

To recall:
Right now I am shorting the long bond. Expect interest rates to go up. Also, I hold physical gold and silver. They should do quite well considering we are running the printing press hot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJvPG9tcZXQ

To rain:
You quoted "Yesterday, I paid $2.46/gallon for gasoline, but it will soon go over $2.50, in fact, it might even punch past $3." Well, today I paid $3.04/gallon for gas. There is no need to wait for $3/gal, it is here.

Back in January I went astral to August 2009 and saw myself paying $3.20 for gas. My reaction was to warn people no to buy pickup trucks. I knew that gasoline would go up a lot. It went up slow at first. As late as April I was paying about $1.87/gallon, but in may gas price exploded.

 

[RainmanTime]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

It is abundantly clear that HDRKID has no shame whatsoever:

To rain:
You quoted "Yesterday, I paid $2.46/gallon for gasoline, but it will soon go over $2.50, in fact, it might even punch past $3." Well, today I paid $3.04/gallon for gas. There is no need to wait for $3/gal, it is here.

There it is folks. Just as I predicted earlier in this thread. And I successfully predicted this not because I am a TTer, nor because I can RV the future. No, I predicted this because HDRKID is eminently predictable in how he plays his game.

But Kid! What happened to your statement where you told us that all of your gas price predictions are based upon the US average price for regular? Why are you switching now to your personal spot price? (We know why). Did you notice on the US average price chart for regular gas that the average is only at $2.60/gallon? So not only are you being slimy in switching back to a spot price, but I would not put it past you to be quoting your spot price for premium grade gas. Because, with you being in Indiana, I can look at the DOE page that tracks average prices in various states, and I can clearly see that the average in Ohio is only $2.81/gallon. I would also not put it past you to drive around and find the station with the highest price...just to make sure that your "RVing the future" prediction of $3/gallon was somehow validated.

But the big problem, Kid, is that you also predicted $4/gallon gas this year....Yep, right here in this thread you predicted it, and you claimed you RV'ed the future and saw it.

And of course, you conveniently ignore anything that does not fit your model of yourself or anything that makes you wrong. Heck, you will even deny that you stated that your gas price predictions are based on US average for regular grade, even though I can easily point to the post in this thread where you said this.

Not only do you have no shame, you have no morals either.
RMT

P.S. BTW, I live in Southern California, which has the highest average gas prices outside of Hawaii. And this morning the Shell gas station that I purchase from was selling regular grade for $2.97/gallon. I find it pretty hard to believe that regular gas prices in Indiana are higher than SoCal!!!

 

[Darby]

Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

Back in January I went astral to August 2009

Kid, I think, and I know that I'm not alone in this belief, that you "went astral" a lot farther back in time than January of 2009.