The HDRkid Thread

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Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Darby:

FEMA's got your back, RIGHT! Actually, as our gov runs out of money, it will fall apart. no money = no power.

To rain:
You said "I predict the peak will occur no later than my birthday (June 23rd). And it will be under $3/gallon."

It can keep going up as long as you keep buying it. Deny reality, and you suffer. Confront the reality and you survive. Data suggests we hit peak oil in 2005 so resource rich countries are against the dollar. They will want gold. This means gold will go up.

OK my goal is warning people so we can prepare.

Housing bottom?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/S-P-HD-LOW-A-mortgage/index/a/23080/from/msn

Here is a man who predicted financial armageddon back in July 2007.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tlavyUZ5Bc

832f7062-57c5-11de-8c47-00144feabdc0.jpg
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To rain:
You said "I predict the peak will occur no later than my birthday (June 23rd). And it will be under $3/gallon."
Click to expand...

So now you are quoting my predictions? Is that just another way to ignore the questions I ask you about your failed predictions? Would you care to address the spot price vs. average price issue? I assume that all your predictions are still citing the average US price, not a spot price...yes?

And what about that nasty $4/gallon gas prediction you made for this year? What about that?

RMT
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

It was yet another dow day for the DOWN Jones Industrial Average, DOWn 187 points, but hey look on the bright side, gasoline price plummeted to $2.74 9/10 per gallon. This on evidence that the so called "economic recovery" is smoke and mirrors. Elevated levels of spending created an unsustainable house of card which came crashing down and created our current economic crisis. Road ahead is rough. There will be many difficult and painful cuts in spending up ahead. Key is to spend less and produce more.


Today in news

recession fears cripple stocks
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/15/markets/markets_newyork/?postversion=2009061517

big banks still not lending
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/15/news/companies/tarp_banks_lending/index.htm

credit card defaults rise to record in May
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090615&id=10022741

I predict that our economy will shrink next year as well as this year and do not predict economic recovery, rather instead shall predict most tragically - economic ruin. /ttiforum/images/graemlins/frown.gif
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

The Kid often has trouble saying this, so I will translate for him:

gasoline price plummeted to $2.74 9/10 per gallon.
Click to expand...

In other words, I was right (again) and you were wrong (again). But not only were you wrong once with your $3/gallon prediction, but you were wrong twice because you also predicted $4/gallon. Oh and even your $2.74 9/10 price is still wrong, as it does not match the US average for regular grade, which is still under $2.70/gallon by figures released today (check the chart on the previous page).

As it turns out, your "predictions" (read:guesses) are more often wrong than right, contrary to the way you seem to promote them.

RMT
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

Actually, as our gov runs out of money it will fall apart.no money, no power.
Click to expand...


HDRkid (and you too, Peter): You have something to learn about the exercise of power."no money, no power," doesn't apply. What does apply is : "guns = power." An unpleasant reality, but there it is.

I think it is a safe bet that this government does not intend to fall apart. If it ran out of money, martial law, of course, would be declared, In which case you don't need money. It would probably issue some of that scrip it has had stored in Ft. Knox for the longest.

Do you really think there are going to be little groups of survivalists living in their holes in the woods? Not going to happen. The army would round up (when it had time) all of these wood violets and inter them in camps. You do not realize just how nasty things could get.

I can say with a reasonable degree of confidence that a country with the resources of the U.S. is not going to roll over and play dead.

Get out of your double wide down there in Florida, HDRkid, and take a trip through the country this summer and fall. You can easily arrange an itinerary that will take you through 1000 miles of non-stop corn and soybean fields, That's mile after mile after mile of cornfields that produce 200 or 300 bushels an acre of field corn. Most of that goes to feed animals. Some is used for ethanol, but not as much as you think. The big agricultural problem in the U.S. is over production which keeps the price down.There will be plenty of food, even if its cornmeal mush. Starvation means not having food to eat, not, not having what you want to eat.

And there is plenty of salt to go around,Peter, there's tons and tons of salt just sitting in piles
in County warehouses in the colder parts of the country. So Stopyerbellyachin. /ttiforum/images/graemlins/cry.gif
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Parkerbacker:

OK, since growing food is my biz, I can tell you that we have never had a major famine in our history where over 50% of our population died of hunger. Therefore, you are not prepared for what is coming.

While, a barn cat can go feral and survive in the wild, a house cat with no hunting skills will not survive. You depend on a system that will not exist in the future. -^-


To rain:

The price of gas goes up and down like a ping pong ball. That is not the problem, the problem is a massive shortage in the future. no fuel = no food

TAKEN FROM http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/business/18fedex.html?ref=business
The FedEx Corporation, the package delivery company, warned Wednesday that it expects earnings well below analysts’ views in the next quarter, The company lost $876 million, or $2.82 a share in the three-month period ending in May, compared with a loss of $241 million, or 78 cents per share a year ago.

Why is this important?
OK, when FEDEX lost money last year, skeptics say it was due to high price of oil. This year, oil is cheaper than last, losses are bigger. AND, that not all, projections are for even bigger losses in 2010. People, we are going down!


TAKEN FROM http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124390025302374483.html
"Rick Wagoner, then GM's chief executive, stepped up to a podium in a Dallas hotel July 10 to address an audience of Texas business leaders, and outlined his view: The struggling car maker might have to sell its Hummer brand, but the rest of the company was safe. And as for Wall Street speculation of a bankruptcy filing, no way."

I still remember when the skeptics told me that waGONER was CEO of GM and that he knew what was going on and that I did not know anything. Well, here we are in 2009, waGONER is a goner and so is GM. Debunkers now claim GM going under was obvious and when something is obvious, it does not count as a prediction. HEY, guess somebody forgot to tell waGONER, the exCEO of GM.


TAKEN FROM http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/eulogies-for-general-motors/
Robert Reich writes that the Obama administration “is not telling anyone the complete truth: G.M. will disappear, eventually. The bail-out is designed to give the economy time to reduce the social costs of the blow.”

Market ticket explains it.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/P1.html

TAKEN FROM http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-06-08-home-loan-foreclosures-subprime_N.htm
"The pace of prime borrowers going into foreclosure is accelerating,"

This is the guy I listen to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zmfTPePjgA

russia warns OIL can soar over $150/b
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article180269.ece

Here is a graph I look at.

saupload_purchasing_power.png
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

Packerbacker,

About the mush, totally true - I just made a post in a diff forum before reading this all about food shortages, etc...
As in that other post, people do realize Canada up there, exports 48% of all the world's wheat, so I rather doubt N. America has much to worry about in terms of staples, might be bland, but worst case scenerio is we get in shape whatever the theorectical event lol.
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Kid:

To rain:

The price of gas goes up and down like a ping pong ball. That is not the problem, the problem is a massive shortage in the future. no fuel = no food
Click to expand...

Would you please care to address what I was talking about, rather than ignoring it and making your own statement that has nothing to do with what I was talking about? We were talking about your consistent failures in "RVing future gas prices" among many other failures you have had in "RVing the future." We were also talking about how, apparantly, you have TWO predictions for peak gas prices in this year: One for $3/gal and the other for $4/gallon. Both will be wrong, of course, but why the need for two predictions if you can "RV the future?"

Here, let me show you what is going on in a bit more detail:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html

At the top of these statistics we see the following:
<font color="red">
______________________________Change from Change from
6/1/2009__6/8/2009__6/15/2009____week ago____year ago
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
_2.524_____2.624______2.672_______0.048_______-1.410 [/COLOR]

Can you see what is going on here, Kid? That's right... my prediction is still holding fast, and we are about to see that my prediction is just as accurate this year as it was last year.

Do you notice how the price is still below $3/gallon? Can you also see how the rate of gas price increases is slowing down from week to week? Do you remember what my prediction was? My birthday is coming up next Tuesday, the 23rd, and that was my rough prediction for when the summer gas price peak would hit us. Once again we are seeing that your "RVing the future" has failed you completely (not that this is what you are really doing anyway), and my simple, market-based analysis and projection has once again just about hit the nail on the head.

So by these statistics alone of your method compared to mine, it clearly shows that your method is far inferior to mine, and no one should put any trust in what you are predicting as having much chance of coming true. Just like Hillary Clinton as president.

RMT
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

We're making a superstar out of the kid, RMT. This thread is already 60 pages long. The only other person I know of that has numbers higher than that is George Noory (of the thread)on GLP. :D
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Angleochoas:
Canada &amp; US are the breadbasket of the world. Therefore any shortage of food will be a truly global event. There is one thing that few understand, a major disruption in our supply of food will cause a complete collapse of our society.

To Packerbacker:
You said - guns = power.
It is not that easy. For one thing an army requires fuel to move, food for soldiers, etc. The tendency is for gov to control the city, while the countryside is in the hands of revolutionaries, a good example is FARC in Columbia. Guess what, in a nuclear war it is the cities that are destroyed - I believe John Titor spoke about this.

To rain:
Back when oil was in the $30/b territory, I said that this year it would go over 60 and then over 70. I tell you now that it will in the next decade go over $250/b and that will send gas over $5/gal and then over $6/gal. YES, gasoline will be rationed. I have seen it using RV.

As for the economy......

taken FROM http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Get-Ready-for-the-New-tsmp-1988509423.html?x=0&amp;.v=1
"If the green shoots are really so wonderful, why does the recent Nelson Rockefeller Institute report on state tax collections read like a disaster novel? State income tax revenue fell 26% in the first four months of the year. This may be backward-looking, but with no job growth anywhere to be seen, I doubt the number is improving. States are required to balance their budgets, so this is going to mean cutbacks. Cutbacks mean even more job losses by one of the largest providers of jobs. The other choice, raising state taxes, is just too disastrous to the economy to even contemplate right now."

STATES WILL RAISE TAX, what other choice do they have?

Record unemployment rates
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31445338/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

I predict that because income tax is down, sales tax is down, even property tax is down, states have to raise TAX.

States raise tax
TAKEN FROM http://finance.yahoo.com/taxes/article/107205/6-states-hitting-residents-big-tax-hikes.html?mod=taxes-advice_strategy
"State legislators faced with mammoth budget gaps and sharply lower revenue are looking to residents to bail them out. Right now, at least 47 states are facing significant shortfalls in their 2009 and/or 2010 budgets,"


Peter Schiff says the now for the 1st time in decades european companies have a higher market capitalization than american.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCfLdDW8ajE

Back in 2007 I was listening to debunkers tell me that Darby won, and that I lost because the dow was going up. That 2009 would be fine.

The coming catastrophic collapse of the economy is now starting. Back in 2005 when I did warn all of you of tidal wave of bankruptcy that would hit the US, debunker darby claimed I was crying wolf. Well, now you see that I was right and he was wrong. Those of you that prepared will be OK. Those of you that listened to debunkers will suffer the consequences.

Any time a politician tell you "don't panic, everything's fine" You gotta be running out the door.

http://www.billshrink.com/blog/average-credit-scores-by-state/

TAKEN FROM http://www.newsweek.com/id/166659/page/2
"all of Detroit will tumble into bankruptcy. And that will take down thousands of parts suppliers, dealers and other businesses that depend on the American automakers."

Here is a man who believes similar to me.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/oct212008.html

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ym8Q9yxUg34/SjetlrdID-I/AAAAAAAAKoA/uRAUj7bV5uY/s1600-h/ip0509index.jpg
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To Angleochoas:
Canada &amp; US are the breadbasket of the world. Therefore any shortage of food will be a truly global event. There is one thing that few understand, a major disruption in our supply of food will cause a complete collapse of our society.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but I have to disagree with that statement on the basis of vagueness.
The only way to have disruption on the scale you are speaking is really global warfare.
Let me point something out. Once again using Canada as the example. It's impossible for the wheat combines to run out of fuel.
Why?
The prairies are located right on the oil sands lol.

So worst come to worst ever, it's pretty self sufficient.
Why are you not ever mentioning all the oil shale the USA has never tapped domestically?
Can engines dedicated for necessity run on natural gas if they have to?

These are all very fundamental questions that are being glossed by in this wild imagining.
Did the country go to shi$ during WWII when there was food and steel rationing?
I'd imagine the cause for nervousness was imminent at that period, but once a cause is unified, the pessimists get annoying, wouldn't you agree?

I'm also sure there was more crime during the great depression in this context, however criminals still get dealt with. Makes more public service jobs. If N. Korea can have 1.2 million troops or so with their economy and food shortage, I think we can still inflate our manpower to vast lvls if need ever arise lol.

With all your predictions you seem to gloss by that current factor alot. I'd say it has more to worry about than all of this ranting. A crazed dictator with nukes that just went through a stroke and could be dillusional, moreso than before at least. Not to mention he's firing off missiles left and right at the moment.

Where's the graphs about that?
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

We're making a superstar out of the kid, RMT. This thread is already 60 pages long.
Click to expand...

That's fine by me, PB... the reason being that when anyone looks back through this thread they can see that not only are there no other posters supporting HDRKID and/or validating any of his wild claims, but quite the opposite: Anyone who reads this will see just how much of a fool HDRKID is to have made predictions that were so wrong, and then to completely ignore evidence that proves they were wrong but to hang on to the one, maybe two, predictions that he kinda got right.

The Kid has said "well over 90% of my predictions come true". But even that claim is so ridiculous as to be laughable. Awhile back Darby did a small survey of the Kid's claims. In that survey, IIRC, the Kid got two (with generous accessions from Darby) out of 7 or 8 predictions correct. Even the Kid's math sucks! :D

RMT
 
Re: The Bogosity of Peak Oil

To rain:
Back when oil was in the $30/b territory, I said that this year it would go over 60 and then over 70. I tell you now that it will in the next decade go over $250/b and that will send gas over $5/gal and then over $6/gal. YES, gasoline will be rationed. I have seen it using RV.
Click to expand...

But I am not talking about any NEW predictions you wish to make (ones I have to wait a whole DECADE before we can see them to be bogus). What I am talking about are your continuous misses in ALL of your gas price predictions. As mentioned in my last post, you have made the claim that "over 90%" of your predictions have come true. How can you claim that when every single prediction you have made about gas prices have been false, and you have had to resort to the game of switching from average price to spot price to TRY and make you right?

And again I ask the question: What is your REAL prediction for peak gas prices (US average, regular grade) for this year 2009? Is is $3/gallon or $4/gallon? Doesn't matter because BOTH are wrong!

RMT
 
Sad Day for HDRKID - Just As I Predicted!

Well Kid,

It is now Time for you to face the music for a second year in a row. My gas price predictions for this year are again, spot-on. Here is what I said in my earlier prediction:

<font color="blue">RainmanTime on 6/4/2009:[/COLOR] The summer pump price increases are almost at their peak. Using the US average price chart that I have posted above many times, I predict the peak will occur no later than my birthday (June 23rd). And it will be under $3/gallon.
Click to expand...

And today we have the following story from CNN Money which bears out my prediction again this year:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/22/markets/gas_prices/index.htm

<font color="red"> "The price of a gallon of gas dipped Monday, snapping a 54-day run-up.

Nationwide, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline edged down to $2.69, shaving just three-tenths of a cent from the previous day's average of $2.693, according to motorist group AAA." [/COLOR]

Amazing how accurate I am, huh Kid? I predicted gas would not go above $3/gallon and here we see it has peaked at $2.69/gallon. I also predicted that the peak would occur "no later than my birthday (June 23rd)", and here on June 22nd we finally hear average US gas prices dip from their $2.69/gallon peak.

I have once again proven that my scientific and statistical analysis is far superior than HDRKID's "RVing the future". And no time travel was necessary, nor were any time travelers harmed in performing this feat!

RMT
 
Re: Sad Day for HDRKID - Just As I Predicted!

To Angleochoas:
Back in the 1940's USA was a net oil exporter, now we import 70% of our oil, soon 80%. The mexican cantarell oil field, 2nd largest oil field in the world is dying.

Yes, I know we have oil shale but getting to the oil is hard. The big worry is that things will get so out of control that the system will break down. Take a look at iran. Things can get out of hand quickly.


To rain:
The future is what it is.

Take a look at this
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55L12V20090622

OK even as we speak taliban are trying to get their hands on nukes so they can hit america. The only thing a debunker will do is giggle and say "That's impossible". However, using remote viewing there are timelines where major cities are gone.

The key is to use this information to prevent the event. These taliban are embolden by seeing we do nothing to North Korea, which threatens to fire a missile near hawaii.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55K2D720090622

Lack of oil creates problems in the future, because our technology depends on it. However, we could switch to using coal. Kerosene use to be called "coal oil" it can be used to power jets. Also, maglev trains can replace jets on many short flights. Electric cars can be produced. GM dragged their feet on Chevy Volt. This should have been a priority in the 80's not producing gigantor SUV trucks.

In the 50's when GM was doing well, less than 10% of its vehicles were trucks, but by the 90's it started making more trucks than cars. This was a recipe for disaster. I knew that high oil prices would crush truck sales and predicted as much.

The big problem is that debunkers make fun of the problem, that is when we face catastrophe. Key is to prepare for the problem. It is not like we cannot solve it.
 
Re: Sad Day for HDRKID - Just As I Predicted!

To rain:
The future is what it is.
Click to expand...

Sure it is...

Well, actually, not exactly. When some folks they saw the future and 6 billion people will die from Bird Brain Flu - and then the damned victims refuse to die - they say, "Well - 'they' came up with a vaccine" entirely ignoring the fact that they assured their audience that they really, really saw the future.

You know, kind of an irrational rationalization for failure.

Please plug in the non sequitur response here: ___________________________________________________
Keep it short and no URL links, thank you. I'm easily bored.
 
Re: Sad Day for HDRKID - Just As I Predicted!

To Donald:
With the tiny investment of a pencil and a piece of paper, you too can predict the future. Actually, we can thank the US gov that made remote viewing available to its citizens. They spent millions developing this technology - your tax dollars at work.
California is often a trend setter for other states. Well, now it pays using IOUs and is running out of money. If an economic recovery were real, they would see property prices going back up, instead real estate is in free fall and the state is hit with three things.
1) Decline in property prices - less property tax
2) Decline in incomes - less income tax
3) Decline in sales - less sales tax.

Back in 2005 Debunker Darby was laughing at me, and I told him - your laughter will turn into tears.

To rain:
The price of gasoline will rise in the next decade for three reasons:
1) Supply of oil is declining as old oil wells start to falter and we must pump in more and more water to squeeze out the last few drops of oil.
2) Demand for oil is increasing as China &amp; India move to a more developed status. People in these countries are now seeing a rise in living standards meaning they consume more oil.
3) Value of the dollar is going down as our gov prints more and more green pieces of paper.

To Angleochoas:
All empires fall. Katrina is a good example of how our gov is falling apart. Back in 1992 Hurricane Andrew smashed miami. Well, miami rebuilt. New Orleans still now in 2009 has many areas that have never been rebuilt. This is not 90's. It feels more like the 30's.


To Darby:
Making fun of me will not prevent these events from taking place. OK even as we speak the swine flu continues to spread. I predict that there will be many waves of disease epidemics. So far bird flu kills about 50% of people that get it and does not spread from person to person easily. The swine flu does spread easily, but kills less than 1% of people who do get it. It is my prediction that in the future a - new flu, will evolve that kills over 90% of people that get it and spreads easily.

My Time:
If people had sold their houses and bought gold like I told them to. They would be in good shape. I did predict that things would get worse and that food would disappear from store shelves. When that happens you will understand why in 2005 I told Darby that parable of the ant and the grasshopper. It is wise to prepare in times of plenty for times of adversity.
 
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