Hurricane Katrina ties it all together (Civil War)

Ok, I'll start off by saying that I don't personally believe John Titor was either from the future or psychic. I am prepared to go as far as saying that he was perhaps well read and/or researched his topics on the 'net before he started the whole show, but thats about it.

Secondly, I will say, that from a scientific point of view, I'm open to the chance that I'm wrong, but in the absence of any hard evidence to suggest this, I'll stick with my opinion and the facts at hand.

NOW, that said, the posts by rainman on this forum have irritated me slightly, because as informed and credible as many of them are, there are some that are quite ignorant (and I mean factually, attitude aside).

For instance:

by RainmanTime
Consider this as a big lesson of Katrina: Take responsibility for yourself, and prepare yourself beforehand such that you don't have to ask for help. Instead of RELYING on help, make it your absolute last resort. Too many people ignored the warning to evacuate, expecting that "well, the government will help me out of anything I get into." THIS is the problem with the way so many people look at the government. GOVERNMENT IS NOT AN INSURANCE COMPANY AGAINST YOUR OWN STUPIDITY AND WILLINGNESS TO AVOID LOOKING OUT FOR YOURSELF.

The majority of people who were stranded in New Orleans were of a socio-economic group who were incapable of making there own way out of the city in the time provided. Now, apart from the humanitarian aspect of leaving your old, sick and poor behind, if you look through the history of civil wars, it is the poor and down-trodden masses who ar emost likely to instigate such actions.

I am not for a second claiming that this WILL lead to Civil War, however I think that there can be little arguement with the claim that "Civil Unrest" has already taken place.

Continuing, the major problem I have with your post (in jest or not) is this

by RainmanTime
but people ignored it and thought they knew better, and thought they would be fine. They chose wrong. They chose wrong. And that is part of Darwinism, isn't it?

No it isn't.
To suggest that the majority of peple left behind were either stupid or subject to "Natural Selection" or Darwinism (which ever of the many meanings this term may have) is just plain obtuse. Why were incapacitated patients in hospitals left to die? Are you going to suggest its natural selection? If so, I believe you don't fully understand what evolutionary mechanisms are.

Apart from anything else, as has already been mentioned, the US government withdrew funding for upkeeping the failed water barriers and also had poor emergency management in place. The tsunami response, in a relatively romote and rural part of the world (not to mention poor) received a faster and more efficient response.

These are the sort of issues that can and do (historically) lead to civil war. And remember, science, rational thinking and logic have little to do with civirl unrest and uprisings, all you need is a critical mass of angry people and weapons (thank god for the 2nd amendment eh?).

Just on the note of the governments role, it should be noted that an offical statement in the run up to Rita, warned that the government did NOT have the facilities to evacuate everyone from densely populated areas. They called on neighbours to help one another and especially the old, the sick and the poor. Two things strike me about this. 1) Surely this sort of statement should have been made before Katriona 2) It doens't bode well for something that doesn't give you 3 days warning, like say ohhh I nuclear explosion or chemical/biological strike (not that I'm saying there is any danger, but as a critique on emergency strategy management, its a fair point).


If civil wars and such were easy to predict, they wouldn't happen, because governments would quell them before they start. But the seeds and ingredients for them are easy to see, and while I rate the chance of a US Civil War taking place as tiny, some ofthe ingredients are surely there.


Finally, like so many horoscopes, its easy to take something from a vague, random or co-incidental comment/prediction, I couldn't help but double take when I read this seemingly random and out of place Titor comment regarding cvil war "Perhaps you are familiar with the story of the Red Sea and the Egyptians"
 
Oh well... I don't believe I ever claimed my views are shared by everyone. And I don't much care if you think they are ignorant, but I think you may have missed the context I was talking to...
The majority of people who were stranded in New Orleans were of a socio-economic group who were incapable of making there own way out of the city in the time provided.
Well, I think it is clear that the quote of mine you used was speaking to individuals and personal responsibility. You are clearing talking about groups of people in specific categories. That would be comparing apples with oranges AFAIAC. I don't disagree with your analysis, but it is irrelevent to the point I was making about personal choices and responsibility. You may wish to treat a group as if it is homogenous, but I still maintain that there are varying levels of capabilities within any such group, and that makes the group heterogenous.

Continuing, the major problem I have with your post (in jest or not) is this (snip)
To suggest that the majority of peple left behind were either stupid or subject to "Natural Selection" or Darwinism (which ever of the many meanings this term may have) is just plain obtuse. Why were incapacitated patients in hospitals left to die? Are you going to suggest its natural selection? If so, I believe you don't fully understand what evolutionary mechanisms are.
I did not mean to imply that my statement applied to everyone who got caught by the storm, and certainly not the invalids or infirmed. Sorry if you took it that way, but I was generalizing with respect to those who could make decisions and find ways to get out. And as with all generalizations, there are exceptions and I acknowledge your pointed examples. Of course there are people who need help and to be taken care of, and I do not mean to imply that these people should be left to their own means. Again, my opinions were related to those who were of sound mind and body who could've left but chose not to. Do you agree that there have always been such people in ALL hurricanes? People just think "I know I could leave, but I'm going to tough it out." Some people who made this decision may have been well prepared, some may have thought they were prepared well enough, and others obviously did not prepare well at all. Should these people be given the same consideration as those who actually couldn't leave, or those who were infirmed and were not helped to leave?

For example: MEM made a decision to stay for Rita. Thank God he is OK, and he may have gotten out if things started looking really bad. He is a smart guy and as such I bet he did prepare pretty well if not very well. He did send his family away to protect them. If something bad were to happen to him personally, my point is that it was his choices that would have been primarily responsible for any situation he may have gotten into.

I'm also not claiming the government (either Fed, State, or Local) acted brilliantly during/after Katrina. There's plenty of blame to go around, as well as lessons to be learned. Do you see where some of the lessons learned from Katrina were addressed for Rita? I see at least several.

Finally, my statements really had little, if anything, to do with Titor. Everyone knows my position on that story. It's pretty clear there is no civil war erupting around us, and it will become even more apparant that the Titor story was bogus as 2005 ends and the Olympics begin next year. I'm glad you seem to be in agreement with me about Titor, at least. /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

RMT
 
For example: MEM made a decision to stay for Rita. Thank God he is OK, and he may have gotten out if things started looking really bad. He is a smart guy and as such I bet he did prepare pretty well if not very well. He did send his family away to protect them. If something bad were to happen to him personally, my point is that it was his choices that would have been primarily responsible for any situation he may have gotten into.
Absolutely. By the way, rita tracked east and I'm OK.
 
Re: Hurricane Katrina ties it all together (Civil

the "100,000 dead" prediction : Maybe that was the tsunami that killed 225 000 people?

It probably was, thats the only logical answer to be honest.

And what could lead to a civil war is the bird flu... http://www.atsnn.com/story/170595.html

It would probably start by the poor and outraged and further divide the rich and the poor.
You all saw what happened to civil liberties after katrina, that was a practise run really to a more large scale disaster.
And looting, killing and military abuse will be 100X than the post-Katarina...

So we'll see...

Bird flu is certainly not an impossible cause. For about 36 hours after Katrina there was a real possibility (in my opinion at least) of a civil war starting. Incidently, does anyone know exactly how many 'looters' were killed by police/national guard in the aftermath of Katrina?
 
No, I don't think its a homogeneous group but I do think that those who stayed by choice were often the older poorer people who had nothing to go to. But this is a rather pointless tangent, as, for the most part, those who stayed were people who simply had no means to leave.

Now your post, generalized as you now claim it was intended, was quite ambiguous to differentiating between any of these demographs.

Consider this as a big lesson of Katrina: Take responsibility for yourself, and prepare yourself beforehand such that you don't have to ask for help. Instead of RELYING on help, make it your absolute last resort. Too many people ignored the warning to evacuate, expecting that "well, the government will help me out of anything I get into." THIS is the problem with the way so many people look at the government. GOVERNMENT IS NOT AN INSURANCE COMPANY AGAINST YOUR OWN STUPIDITY AND WILLINGNESS TO AVOID LOOKING OUT FOR YOURSELF.

How many people do you think this actually applies to? 50% of those who suffered? 25%? And furthermore, it reads pretty clearly that you are implying that anyone who was in new orleans was relying on help when they should have been self sufficient. Thats just plain ignorant to the facts at hand.

Now, seeing as you spend a good deal of your posts, patronizing others and flaming those who don't post on fact or logic, I'd urge you to rethink posts like those quoted above and follow your own advice.

Incidently, your reference to the 2006 winter olympics is as close to grasping at straws as any of the Titor-believers. Your basing this debunkal on your own assumption that the character Titor was specifically referring to all olympic games when in fact, the common use of "the olympics" in normal society refers specifically to the summer games. Hence you will often hear "The Olympics" and "The Winter Olympics" but rarely "The Summer Olympics" in common everyday speech.

Hence, your alleged proof is biased by your own opinions and the assumption you have drawn on the meaning of Titor's comment. Poor approach for an alleged logical person.
 
But this is a rather pointless tangent, as, for the most part, those who stayed were people who simply had no means to leave.
Pointless to you, perhaps, but not to me, especially given that I was clarifying my position. Now, I don't buy your "for the most part" comment. How about you clarifying your statement with some facts on that? You are expressing opinion here as if it were factual. As I pointed out before, there are always groups of people who think they can hunker-down and wait out hurricanes... whether they have the money or means to get out or not.

How many people do you think this actually applies to? 50% of those who suffered? 25%?
Again, you are wanting to take my post beyond where it was intended, and I'm not going there because I never intended it to be a JUDGEMENT of who has the means and who doesn't. It was about taking personal responsibility and you want to twist it into something it is not. As for those who were infirmed, I lay the responsibility for BEING PREPARED on their caretakers. Clearly, many of them were NOT prepared.

Your basing this debunkal on your own assumption that the character Titor was specifically referring to all olympic games when in fact, the common use of "the olympics" in normal society refers specifically to the summer games.
No, now you are the one grasping at straws. This is your interpretation of what he meant. It is clearly NOT based on the facts at hand, which were the words he stated. This is where people like you fall down... you want to try to claim that "here is what he meant". That is not factual, and it is a sneaky way for you to inject your opinion.

By the way...precisely what is "normal society"?

Hence you will often hear "The Olympics" and "The Winter Olympics" but rarely "The Summer Olympics" in common everyday speech.
Let me give you a history lesson. It used to be that BOTH the winter and the summer olypmics were held in the same year. It was only in the last 20 years that the decision was made to split the olympics into biennial events. Hence, the history of the games is what made people say "the olympics" because they were held in the same year. Yet now this is not so, and I'd expect any John Titor claiming to have a degree in history to know this and distinguish what he meant if he did not mean ANY olympics in general.

So you see, clearly you are the one grasping at straws to make the Titor legend live beyond the opening of the winter games in Turin. I am doing nothing more than reading the exact words he wrote, without the need for any interpretive explanation of what he meant. In fact, when you look at his words he uses the words "official Olympics":

Are the Olympics still being played in the future?

60. As a result of the many conflicts, no, there were no official Olympics after 2004. However, it appears they may be revived in 2040.
I read what's there. You read what's there and interpret it based on your opinion. So who is grasping at straws again? /ttiforum/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

RMT
 
but it *was* a judgement. look at what you posted. you judged the people who stayed behind, lumping them into one category.


Pointless to you, perhaps, but not to me, especially given that I was clarifying my position. Now, I don't buy your "for the most part" comment. How about you clarifying your statement with some facts on that? You are expressing opinion here as if it were factual.

Well thats down to your ignorance of the facts yet again. 21% of households in the affected areas were without access to a car (source BBC World News report : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4210648.stm). This meant that approx 150,000 were unable to evacuate due to lack or tehir own transport and the lack of school buses used for public emergency transport (any number of sources, but go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina#Evacuation_and_emergency_shelters for plenty of links).

So if you are truely looking at this form an impartial scientists PoV, as you claim, why are you making statements and argueing facts that you don't know or have. That is extremely unscientific.

Most of your posting strikes me as almost evangelical rhetoric rather than intelligent scientific analysis and debate, as you would have people claim.

As I pointed out before, there are always groups of people who think they can hunker-down and wait out hurricanes... whether they have the money or means to get out or not.

Ok, now can you quantify this statement. How many people who had the ability to leave, decided to stay and wait out the hurricane. Can you provide any evidence to support your arguement that they were at least as significant as they amount of people who couldn't leave due to poverty and lack of transport.

(I imagine you'll go with the "I never actually said that" defence, which would be quite weak seeing as you made me offer evidence of my claim that the majority were without the means to leave).


Now, while you try salvage your post, playing semantics. I ask you two very simple questions.

1. Do you actually believe that the majority of those left in NO were people who actually decided to stay?
2. If people are stuck their through poverty (as the majority seem to have been), who does it fall to to get them out?

As for your olympic games comment, I'm well aware of the history of the games, but I was referring to common speech, not historical context and I'm merely pointing out that if you are to try debunk something, you want slightly better ground than the attempt your making with your olympic games reference.

For instance:

The Athens 2004 Offical website "The official website of the ATHENS 2004 Olympic Games - Games of the XXVIII Olympiad " - http://www.athens2004.com/

as opposed to:

Torino 2006 XX Olympic Winter games -http://www.torino2006.org/index.php?lang=en

Do you see the difference? Thats what I mean by common language.

Now try looking at the offical site of the Olympic Committee http://www.olympic.org/uk/games/index_uk.asp

You will notice in EVERY case they refer to summer games purely as "The Olympics" or Olympiad, while they SPECIFICALLY refer to the Winter Games as Winter Olympics (or some derivation of those two words).The term summer olympics is not used.


Now, I'm merely saying that to suggest that someone referencing "The Olympics" means they mean both summer and winter games, is pure conjecture on your part, due to your own agenda, and nothing else. You can't know what the person meant. He COULD well have meant both, but you don't know that, you want to think that because you think it fits yoru arguement, but it doesnt. Hence, you are grasping at straws.

Incidently, to me, "offical olympics" implies that there may be "unoffical" olympics. Which is different to what it implies to you (because you have vested interest in your take on it). So again, its merely conjecture youre taking to strengthen your arguement.

Again, I'm not tryingto strengthen any legend, I'm merely trying to point out that you're portraying biased conjecture as scientific logic. Even though you take the same overall stance as I do, I find your reasoning logically flawed and I'd rather see the debate won on merit rather than rhetoric.
 
2. If people are stuck their through poverty (as the majority seem to have been), who does it fall to to get them out?

Not the President....power lies with the governor of the state..she is clearly the "man" responsible for issues like these. And I don't think she did that good of a good job. Now, I am not saying the President has nothing to do with this, but the Governor Blanco should be the first to take care of these issues as she did with Hurricane Rita. But, you live and learn, lets hope..

Louisiana governor urges coastal evacuation
 
Still no JT true predictions I see. A bunch of people decided to do stupid stuff and steal tv's even though they needed food and water instead! Lol!
Still no waco-style event, still no start to the civil war, still no 100,000 dead.
Nope, its not gonna happen kiddo, and you can bet on it, if it does I'll give you a million yen :-)


China launching into space again? Good ol' china, always rely on those guys to do things right.
 
Depending on how you take it, this might signify a "Waco-type event" or something leading to a time with Waco-type events.
No, this is clearly nothing like a Waco-event. We can begin to count the ways:

1) It was one guy, not a whole host of people.
2) He was not holed-up with guns and other armaments in a sealed compound.
3) He was not holding children as human shields.
4) There was no religious issue involved.
5) It was not an FBI decision to "go in" on this guy. Rather it was the decision of a few cops who may, or may not have had good reason.

RMT
 
John Titor said that the start of the Civil War wouldn't be so obvious, and he actually never predicted 100,000 dead. It was actually a "What if?"-type statement.

Also, if he really was real, I bet that you wouldn't give me a million yen. I guess we'll just have to wait until February for semi-affirmative evidence.
 
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