RainmanTime
Super Moderator
Before I do what I am going to do in this reply, I wish to point out some important things I have said in this thread in response to ruthless. It seems he believes I am totally trashing him, but in reality I have already admitted:
1) The maglev technology, in a car, as he has described it is certainly viable. It CAN be done.
2) This technology implemented in the way he has described is even a GOOD IDEA, for the non-polluting and lack of oil required (at least to run the magnets. Oil would still be required to build some components, but that is not terribly important for this discussion).
The point I have been trying to make to ruthless is that, while it is technically viable, and even a good idea, it is not economically viable in the current time and will not be for at least several decades, if even by then. This is not a "knock" on ruthless. It is merely stating an engineering fact which can be backed-up with several simple analyses. One thing someone who seeks to be an engineer needs to learn how to do is de-emotionalize themselves from valuable, factual feedback that one receives from their fellow engineers and analysts. All engineers learn to perform economic viability analyses for good ideas which are technically viable. Because being a good idea and technically viable is not sufficient. We must show that the idea can be implemented, as a minimum, at not an exorbitantly greater cost than our current solutions for the same problem.
Therefore: I am now going to provide just one, simple (dispassionate) fact-based economic analysis of ruthless' idea, just to show that his statement about building magnetic roads with his magnets would be as cheap as tar roads, is incorrect. This is NOT a knock against ruthless. It is just an engineering analysis to uncover facts. Here we go...
Before we estimate how much a magnet-based road would cost to build, we first need some estimate of how much a conventional road costs to build. One reason I contacted my old college roommate (who is a practicing civil engineer) when this dicussion began was because I knew he would immediately know the specifics of estimating road-building costs. He did. He told me about an empirical equation that all civil engineers use to estimate overall costs to build a road. With a little research I was able to find that equation in a google preview of a book on Transportation Economics by Patrick S. McCarthy. He applies the equation to come up with the cost of 1 mile's length of a 1 lane road for three locations: central city, suburban, and rural highways. The quantifiable metric used for these estimates is called "dollars per (Lane-Mile)" or expressed as a fraction it would be ($/(Lane-Mile)). Here is a chart I put together to document this part of my analysis that shows the approximate cost per (Lane-Mile) in these three areas, along with a calculation for how many square feet are in a (Lane-Mile):
So we see a range of $416 to $1649 per (Lane-Mile) for today's definitively low-tech road. Now we must estimate how much a magnetic road would cost. We have to worry about labor costs, but I am not even going to estimate those now. I am ONLY going to estimate what it would cost for the raw materials...the neodymium magnets that ruthless talked about. Using the website for purchasing such magnets that ruthless, himself, provided I found that the 1"x1" block style magnet is the most appropriate for our application. So they come in a square inch, and if you buy in a lot size of 250 of these things they will cost you $377.19 per lot. Using the square footage for a (Lane-Mile) I converted that into square inches, and that tells us for one (Lane-Mile) of road we will need 6,079,680 of these square-inch magnets! This equates to purchasing 24,319 lots of these magnets at the above price (maybe you could get a bigger price break, and we can do "what ifs" with a spreadsheet if such were the case). Here is the chart for this analysis, which includes some of the quotes from ruthless as its basis:
So we end up with a comparitive cost of <font color="red">$9,119,625 per (Lane-Mile)!!![/COLOR] for building just one lane and one mile of our magnetic road. Clearly this is way, WAY, W-A-Y more expensive than the $416-$1649 per (Lane-Mile) of today's road technology! And I should point out this is ONLY the cost of the magnets. We have not figured any other materials that might be necessary nor the labor to actually build the road, which is all included in the prices from the empirical equations. I would encourage anyone to take these numbers and calculate what it would cost just to build a 2-lane highway that is 100 miles long! First calculate the cost with today's road tech, and then calculate its cost of JUST the neodymium magnets.
Now, of course one could say "well, yeah, but we could get magnets cheaper than the number you used from ruthless' web page." To that I would ask "how much cheaper?" Because clearly you would need a MASSIVELY LARGE cost break to get the cost of the magnet materials anywhere close to what it costs to build a road today. In fact, it is left as an engineering problem to the student to use the analysis I have done above, and calculate what the cost per 1"x1" neodymium magnet would have to be just to get the road building cost equal to $1649 per (Lane-Mile). Calculate how much each of those magnets would have to cost to get the road building cost to that level, and post your answer here.
In summary, I have done what ruthless asked me to do. I have used engineering to prove one of his assumptions was grossly in error. Does it mean magnetic cars and roads will never be built? Of course not. It only means it is highly unlikely they will be built in our near future (10-50 years, I would say). And once again let me point out: This is NOT about getting emotional. This is NOT about putting ruthless down. This is NOT about trying to humilitate him. This is about dispassionate engineering analysis of a GOOD IDEA that is TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE to see if implementing that idea makes economic sense.
I do these types of analysis all the time as an engineer and a teacher. It ain't rocket science!
And folks who wish to make themselves better engineers need to realize that if someone is questioning the viability of someone else's good idea, they are not attacking them personally.
RMT
1) The maglev technology, in a car, as he has described it is certainly viable. It CAN be done.
2) This technology implemented in the way he has described is even a GOOD IDEA, for the non-polluting and lack of oil required (at least to run the magnets. Oil would still be required to build some components, but that is not terribly important for this discussion).
The point I have been trying to make to ruthless is that, while it is technically viable, and even a good idea, it is not economically viable in the current time and will not be for at least several decades, if even by then. This is not a "knock" on ruthless. It is merely stating an engineering fact which can be backed-up with several simple analyses. One thing someone who seeks to be an engineer needs to learn how to do is de-emotionalize themselves from valuable, factual feedback that one receives from their fellow engineers and analysts. All engineers learn to perform economic viability analyses for good ideas which are technically viable. Because being a good idea and technically viable is not sufficient. We must show that the idea can be implemented, as a minimum, at not an exorbitantly greater cost than our current solutions for the same problem.
Therefore: I am now going to provide just one, simple (dispassionate) fact-based economic analysis of ruthless' idea, just to show that his statement about building magnetic roads with his magnets would be as cheap as tar roads, is incorrect. This is NOT a knock against ruthless. It is just an engineering analysis to uncover facts. Here we go...
Before we estimate how much a magnet-based road would cost to build, we first need some estimate of how much a conventional road costs to build. One reason I contacted my old college roommate (who is a practicing civil engineer) when this dicussion began was because I knew he would immediately know the specifics of estimating road-building costs. He did. He told me about an empirical equation that all civil engineers use to estimate overall costs to build a road. With a little research I was able to find that equation in a google preview of a book on Transportation Economics by Patrick S. McCarthy. He applies the equation to come up with the cost of 1 mile's length of a 1 lane road for three locations: central city, suburban, and rural highways. The quantifiable metric used for these estimates is called "dollars per (Lane-Mile)" or expressed as a fraction it would be ($/(Lane-Mile)). Here is a chart I put together to document this part of my analysis that shows the approximate cost per (Lane-Mile) in these three areas, along with a calculation for how many square feet are in a (Lane-Mile):
So we see a range of $416 to $1649 per (Lane-Mile) for today's definitively low-tech road. Now we must estimate how much a magnetic road would cost. We have to worry about labor costs, but I am not even going to estimate those now. I am ONLY going to estimate what it would cost for the raw materials...the neodymium magnets that ruthless talked about. Using the website for purchasing such magnets that ruthless, himself, provided I found that the 1"x1" block style magnet is the most appropriate for our application. So they come in a square inch, and if you buy in a lot size of 250 of these things they will cost you $377.19 per lot. Using the square footage for a (Lane-Mile) I converted that into square inches, and that tells us for one (Lane-Mile) of road we will need 6,079,680 of these square-inch magnets! This equates to purchasing 24,319 lots of these magnets at the above price (maybe you could get a bigger price break, and we can do "what ifs" with a spreadsheet if such were the case). Here is the chart for this analysis, which includes some of the quotes from ruthless as its basis:
So we end up with a comparitive cost of <font color="red">$9,119,625 per (Lane-Mile)!!![/COLOR] for building just one lane and one mile of our magnetic road. Clearly this is way, WAY, W-A-Y more expensive than the $416-$1649 per (Lane-Mile) of today's road technology! And I should point out this is ONLY the cost of the magnets. We have not figured any other materials that might be necessary nor the labor to actually build the road, which is all included in the prices from the empirical equations. I would encourage anyone to take these numbers and calculate what it would cost just to build a 2-lane highway that is 100 miles long! First calculate the cost with today's road tech, and then calculate its cost of JUST the neodymium magnets.
Now, of course one could say "well, yeah, but we could get magnets cheaper than the number you used from ruthless' web page." To that I would ask "how much cheaper?" Because clearly you would need a MASSIVELY LARGE cost break to get the cost of the magnet materials anywhere close to what it costs to build a road today. In fact, it is left as an engineering problem to the student to use the analysis I have done above, and calculate what the cost per 1"x1" neodymium magnet would have to be just to get the road building cost equal to $1649 per (Lane-Mile). Calculate how much each of those magnets would have to cost to get the road building cost to that level, and post your answer here.
In summary, I have done what ruthless asked me to do. I have used engineering to prove one of his assumptions was grossly in error. Does it mean magnetic cars and roads will never be built? Of course not. It only means it is highly unlikely they will be built in our near future (10-50 years, I would say). And once again let me point out: This is NOT about getting emotional. This is NOT about putting ruthless down. This is NOT about trying to humilitate him. This is about dispassionate engineering analysis of a GOOD IDEA that is TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE to see if implementing that idea makes economic sense.
I do these types of analysis all the time as an engineer and a teacher. It ain't rocket science!
RMT