ShudderingManti
Temporal Novice
Re: John Titor, and the concept of 100%
Originally Posted by Rainmantime
That is a good point, 100 percent conclusivity is never quite possible. Perhaps your 99.999 number is better. However, something like... a history book from 2036 that JOhn sends to Pamela (for instance), with a publication date from the future, would be fairly conclusive. not 100 percent, but it would take an extraordinary effort to write an entire thick future history book, bind it, with pictures, professionally etc. Not impossible, but very difficult. As opposed to say... another photo, which even though it may be showing something conclusive, can be easily faked on Photoshop.
I'm hoping the original question I posed about their "information" is answered by both of them, but even if not, I'm beginning to comb through the posts of days yonder, in particular threads with posts by BOTH Darby and Pamela, keeping in mind that chances are, one of them is most likely lying.
(EDIT: I realized this was a little unclear on my part on what that meant... what I mean is, I am cataloguing "definitive in-the-know" statements made by either of the two in the past, statements where they refer to information *they* have or are aware of regarding Titor that the rest of us do not. Since I'm on the early threads at the moment, most of these are Pamela, for NOW. I'm sure I'll get to the Darby ones soon. Since they both claim to have information, one of them is wrong/lying. Any answer to the "information conflict" in my initial post, will "reflect back" in a manner of speaking, to all the "information" they've said they have in the past. That still sounds a little muddled I admit, but it makes sense in my head, I swear!!!
)
YOur comment about 'cognitive dissonence' is rather interesting, in regards to one of the thread archives involving Darby/Pamela posts that I am currently reading.
Pamela, do you by any chance still have the IBM computer label that Titor sent you (from the computer that he picked up in 1975)? Were you ever able to scan it into a computer? Were any of your dating tests conclusive? I can only find one thread archive on the subject, so I apogolize if its been followed up on already.
Also, a general question... I know Titor's final postings apparently occured in March of 2001. Does anyone know if there's any definite information about how long he may have stayed here before travelling back to his time? or is that unknown?
Also, in regards to Darby's "information"
...interesting, because one of Pamela's postings from 2001 indicates that she has (or had) a direct line of some sort of Titor's "parents," who apparently stopped responding.
Are they the same people? Or Different? Well, since both have taken vows of ethics or some sort... so I'll assume neither will want to say who their real sources are... we're back to where we were on my above post. Both Darby and Pamela, with conflicting "information"... Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.
EDIT:
Another curiosity, does any of Darby's information include detailed visuals? ie photo or visual description? There is a post by Pamela indicating that she knows visual details of Titor, but will not say them (ie privacy of john/ethics, etc).
DOUBLE EDIT:
This investigation is continuing (or restarting) over on Anomolies, b/c more people post there and Darby/Pamela post there also. Also, *for now* I'm eliminating the possibly that any of them are lying and going with the "ONE IS WRONG" approach /ttiforum/images/graemlins/ooo.gif
Originally Posted by Rainmantime
Welcome ShudderingManti!
Thanks for the injection of logic. Now let me just inject some statistics and probability theory. When you said:
>>Or... Is the information 100 percent conclusive?<<
That's a dark and deceiving road you're going down there. There is nothing in the universe that is 100% anything. One can "prove" something to 99.9999 or so, but that last stretch to 100% is the stuff of asymtotic limits. My work in safety-critical aircraft and spacecraft control systems centers around those high 99% numbers. And I often smile when unsophisticated/uneducated customers try to levy design requirements on me like "100% of safety-critical failure modes shall be detectable by the system." It's a nice thought, with good intent (safety) but in reality it cannot ever be achieved....for there is ALWAYS something you don't know, and that something you don't know is a probability that whittles away at the 100% goal.
The 100% caveat notwithstanding, my personal opinion is that you hit the nail on the head with your "tick-tock" analogy. I would classify both Pamela and Darby and their "private information" in the category called "cognitive dissonance". Their information serves to increase the amount of "noise" making it very difficult to pick out the "signal" of truth, whatever it may be.
That is a good point, 100 percent conclusivity is never quite possible. Perhaps your 99.999 number is better. However, something like... a history book from 2036 that JOhn sends to Pamela (for instance), with a publication date from the future, would be fairly conclusive. not 100 percent, but it would take an extraordinary effort to write an entire thick future history book, bind it, with pictures, professionally etc. Not impossible, but very difficult. As opposed to say... another photo, which even though it may be showing something conclusive, can be easily faked on Photoshop.
I'm hoping the original question I posed about their "information" is answered by both of them, but even if not, I'm beginning to comb through the posts of days yonder, in particular threads with posts by BOTH Darby and Pamela, keeping in mind that chances are, one of them is most likely lying.
(EDIT: I realized this was a little unclear on my part on what that meant... what I mean is, I am cataloguing "definitive in-the-know" statements made by either of the two in the past, statements where they refer to information *they* have or are aware of regarding Titor that the rest of us do not. Since I'm on the early threads at the moment, most of these are Pamela, for NOW. I'm sure I'll get to the Darby ones soon. Since they both claim to have information, one of them is wrong/lying. Any answer to the "information conflict" in my initial post, will "reflect back" in a manner of speaking, to all the "information" they've said they have in the past. That still sounds a little muddled I admit, but it makes sense in my head, I swear!!!
YOur comment about 'cognitive dissonence' is rather interesting, in regards to one of the thread archives involving Darby/Pamela posts that I am currently reading.
Pamela, do you by any chance still have the IBM computer label that Titor sent you (from the computer that he picked up in 1975)? Were you ever able to scan it into a computer? Were any of your dating tests conclusive? I can only find one thread archive on the subject, so I apogolize if its been followed up on already.
Also, a general question... I know Titor's final postings apparently occured in March of 2001. Does anyone know if there's any definite information about how long he may have stayed here before travelling back to his time? or is that unknown?
Also, in regards to Darby's "information"
Titor is no different - even thought the venue is very different. I am not John Titor nor have I played any part in developing the story other than expressing my opinions about it. My source is a very real person and, ultimately, the persona behind Titor is a very real person. He also has a family and friends. I have no Constitutional duty to refrain from disclosing information that, ethically, I know should not be disclosed without the expressed written permission of the source...and even then I have to consider what effect the disclosure might have on the very real (though non-time traveling) "John Titor" and his family.
...interesting, because one of Pamela's postings from 2001 indicates that she has (or had) a direct line of some sort of Titor's "parents," who apparently stopped responding.
Are they the same people? Or Different? Well, since both have taken vows of ethics or some sort... so I'll assume neither will want to say who their real sources are... we're back to where we were on my above post. Both Darby and Pamela, with conflicting "information"... Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.
EDIT:
Another curiosity, does any of Darby's information include detailed visuals? ie photo or visual description? There is a post by Pamela indicating that she knows visual details of Titor, but will not say them (ie privacy of john/ethics, etc).
DOUBLE EDIT:
This investigation is continuing (or restarting) over on Anomolies, b/c more people post there and Darby/Pamela post there also. Also, *for now* I'm eliminating the possibly that any of them are lying and going with the "ONE IS WRONG" approach /ttiforum/images/graemlins/ooo.gif