Predictions for 2005/6

Re: Flurry of 4.0+ along San Andreas

jmpet,
I ask because it could answer a lot of big questions. I also ask because if this is the case, then it's possible California could fracture any day... the other end of a tecnonic plate? Wobbling? I see you connected a lot of earthquake data but could it all be connected to that?
Click to expand...
What you say might be true. I'm not saying you are wrong. However, I want to point out that I took up this hobby, and the task of building my stress model, because I had my own theory. That theory is that there actually may be an "earthquake season" along the San Andreas that corresponds to the two times during the year where thermal rates of change (and therefore thermal stresses) are at a local maximum. I saw the correlation in the data over the past 2 years, and that is what I decided to study... to see if I could back-up my theory.

Now, this speaks to a point that I had tried to make with you, and also something I was talking to Einstein and Hercules about. Namely, having a "going in theory" that you can describe mathematically before you begin trial-and-error experimentation has been shown through history to help accelerate scientific discoveries. Has it helped in ALL cases? No. But it has certainly helped in a great majority.

So, I had a theory, I did my engineering analysis, correlated some data, and built my math model. While I am now ready to admit that my predictions (at least as far as magnitudes) did NOT come true, you might want to go back and at least look at the earthquake frequency and magnitude data for the two prediction timeframes that I delineated this year in this thread. So far, from what I am seeing, the actual data tends to validate my "earthquake season" timeframes. IOW, so far I think there is evidence that there is something to my theory about thermal rates of change in the earth's crust due to solar migration causing increased stress at certain times of the year. This is how I do science... set out a theory, build a model, collect data, and analyze its relevance.

If you'd like to study your "tectonic resonance" theory, by all means have at it! But that is just not what I set out to study. Again, I'm not saying you are wrong!


And... in another thread here, you seemed to brand what I have been doing in this thread as "bad logic". I'm really interested in why you think it's "bad logic". I'd especially like you to debunk my theory about thermal heating and thermal stress... but I don't think you can.

RMT
 
Re: Flurry of 4.0+ along San Andreas

Oh yeah.... for the record: Clearly my predictions did NOT come to pass! (Kinda glad given where I live).

I had told myself that if it DID come to pass that we had a big quake in that time, that I was going to destroy my math models. But now that it didn't happen, I guess I am going to hang onto them, update the data in them as we progress towards the next thermal heating rate of change maximum, and maybe tweak some of the model parameters. Next timeframe based on current data will again be in the April-May timeframe next year. However, this could change depending on how mild/severe our winter will be and when the SoCal rains cease in the spring.

RMT
 
SCORECARD for Predictions

I thought it might be amusing to resurrect this post and see how many of the predictions in this thread did or did not come true. I intend to only address the "serious" ones, even though some of the humorous ones are pretty funny. Here we go:

Malcom: Well, so far here we have May 5th a Blair loss in the UK elections. Hung parliament?
RESULT: Nope.

Malcom: June 2005 USA invades Iran, and the draft is set to follow!
RESULT: Nope.

fortytwo: 1. May 5: Tony Blair wins the elections in the UK. No Hung Parliament.
RESULT: Yup.

fortytwo: 2. May 7: "Bellamy Road", the favourite horse, surprisingly doesn't win the Kentucky Derby
RESULT: Yup. Giacomo took the roses.

fortytwo: 3. June: The USA doesn't invade Iran
RESULT: Yup. (An easy one, but he got it right!)


fortytwo: 4. July 6: New York is chosen to host the 2012 Olympic Games.
RESULT: Nope. Got a place for me to stay in London, anyone? /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

RainmanTime: I have a feeling that there will be a SoCal earthquake of magnitude greater than 6.0 between now (14 May 2005) and (10 June 2005).
RESULT: Close, but no cigar. Largest in that timeframe for my prediction region was only a 5.6. However, there was a 7.0 off the coast of Eureka, but that was not within my prediction region.

RainmanTime: As best I can tell, the window for a large quake will open on or around Sunday SEP 4th and will close sometime around Halloween (Monday 31 OCT). Based on all of this, I am calling for a magnitude of no less than 6.3 during the above time window and within the coverage region.
RESULT: Nope. Largest quake in that timeframe was 4.9 off of San Clemente Island.

Did I miss any?
RMT
 
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