Predictions for 2005/6

California Quake

I preface this post with the caveat that I know that anything I predict for the "future" has a finite probability of being incorrect.

I have a feeling that there will be a SoCal earthquake of magnitude greater than 6.0 between now (14 May 2005) and (10 June 2005). Localizing the epicenter of the quake is more difficult for me than approximating the time. But I do believe that this magnitude of quake will happen somewhere south of the SF Bay Area and north of the Cali-Mex border.

Like I say...I could be wrong, but it will be interesting to see if my prediction is even close.

RMT
 
Re: California Quake

Rainman,

I'd say that you have about a 5% chance of having that prediction come true.

You live here so it's no mystery to you that we have approximately 6,000 earthquakes per year in California and that about 250 are magnitude 4.0 to 4.7. We have on average 2 quakes per month that are magnitude 5.0 to 5.5. We have at least one 6.0 every 18 months. So a 6.0 is somewhat common.

As I said, I'm preaching to the choir.
 
Re: California Quake

Awwww Darby,

You're taking all the fun out of my "experiment" by insinuating (correctly) that I am using science, probability, and statistics to make my predictions.
How am I going to get people to believe I am the next John Titor if you keep revealing my "secrets"? /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'd say that you have about a 5% chance of having that prediction come true.
My analysis would say somewhat more than that, but also somewhat less than 50%.

We have at least one 6.0 every 18 months. So a 6.0 is somewhat common. As I said, I'm preaching to the choir.
Yep, you sure are. But there is one method to my prediction, and this method would also have me extend my prediction date out until 1 July 2005 after looking at the data again. The first element of my prediction is based on the activity at other points around the "ring of fire" that would infer increased stresses on our side of the Pacific plate. The second element of my prediction is based on a pet theory of additive thermal stresses induced at the plate interfaces due to both daily solar heating, as well as the transit of the sun between the two tropic lines of delineation. This theory goes like this: Daily thermal stresses are at their peaks either just prior to local sunrise or just after local sunset. Seasonal thermal stresses around here begin to increase at the equinox and, as far as I can see, hit their maximums in mid-late May or very late June and early July (the "June Gloom" effect does, indeed, reduce thermal stresses by keeping daily maximum surfacetemps lower).

So there you go...now I've spilled the beans!
I have a gut feeling that this coming quake will be a bit larger than 6.0, but I am too conservative to go out on a limb until I get more confirmation of my model. /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

RMT
 
Re: Predictions for 2005/6 and John Titor

I've read all the posts here relating to time travel, Titor an other time travellers. Thus far, he is the only one who seems credible despite everybody's reservations and the silly, incoherent and unbelievable post from someone claiming that they were the authors of a the "hoax" known as John Titor. I want to point out a few things:

one, Titor says that in the future, children are educated at home and families are much closer. This seems consistent with his excellent writing skills, vocabulary and philosophy of life. He definitely doesn't spell phonetically as the author of the renunciation post did. Titor's writing style is consistently clear, disapassionate and well-informed. He draws inferences easily from questions posted to him. This sort of inferential reasoning is almost untaught in schools today. From the reading that I have done, it is more likely to be found among home-schooled or privately schooled children whose parents had good educations.

two, Samson Rodriguez cannot spell except quasi-phonetically. His writing style is completely unlike Titors and his explainations of where he got the various items pictured is not believable. Given that most "big iron" was recycled, purchased by foreign countries, given to museums or "parted out" to keep legacy systems running (mostly governmental), it is unlikely that somebody would find these items in a dump--unless that dump was owned by one of the entities mentioned above.

three, the predictions that John T made with regards spongiform encephalitis are highly credible. For those willing to invest the time, go to the TBR.org or TBR.com (I can't remember what the exact name is), and look through the "archives" to locate copies of memos passed to TBR by a veteran newsman. Those memos cover subjects that reporters have been instructed to lie about. Among them is the occurrences of mad cow deaths and illnesses in the United States. Reporters were told not to report or downplay these problems.

four, John Titor says that civil wars will begin in 2004 and 2005. Unless it has been discontinued like so many other reports that show the sad state of affairs in the States, there is a report in all government repositories entitled something like, "Incidents of Domestic Terrorism." This report shows all the attacks against Americans by foreigners or other Americans. From the voter group that captured the state house in Ohio to demonstrations in Colorado and New York that turned rowdy, Americans are not being told the truth about what is going on in this country.

five, Titor talks about the enormous radiation poisoning problem in the future and everyone assumes that it is from the nuclear war. Think again. Bush and Co initiated a program to reduce the cost of disposing of depleted uranium for nuclear power plant owners (big donors to Bush) by putting U238 into weapons, armor on tanks and Bradleys as well as other "recycling applications" dreamed up by these short-sighted nimrods. Depled uranium is not "un-radioactive," it simply lacks U234 and U235, the fissionable elements. U238 gives off alpha, beta and gamma rays. It burns easily and is most dangerous when ingested. Weapons used in Kosovo, the Gulf War, Afghanistan and Iraq are killing our military, their pets, wives and children AFTER THEY COME HOME. Because these men and women were never shown videos on how to handle depleted uranium weapons and the dust that these weapons create upon explosion, countless numbers of them have inhaled D238 dust. Inhaled D238 subjects the body to 238's alpha rays which are very distructive to tissues and DNA.

The 950,000 depleted uranium shells used in Iraq will make that country radioactive for 4.5 billion years. Search on DU and extreme deformities and LOOK AT WHAT THIS STUFF HAS DONE TO BABIES WHO HAVE BEEN BORN IN IRAQ SINCE THE GULF WAR. There are also babies born to American military whose radioactive body fluids impacted their wives. The horror is unbelievable.

Lastly, if you search the Congressional and Senate records online, you will find that a resolution to attack IRAN is already in the works and is in the conference committe right now. (that means that the Senate and House are trying to iron out their differences). Search for the 2020 plan and find out that Rumsfeld, Cheney, Rove and Bush are pushing for Special Ops Forces that anwer to Rumsfeld and are trained in "civil disturbance" quelling. Search under American concentration camps and find out that this was planned from day one of this administration (look at the dates on the gates and when the "upgrades" were made.)

<font color="red"> [/COLOR] Whether John Titor is a real time traveller or whether he is a scientist trying to warn us of the impending disaster around the world, it is very important to understand that much of what he has said has its roots in truths that are frightening and portentious of a future that none of us would recognize.

That is the importance of John Titor to me. <font color="red"> [/COLOR]
 
Re: California Quake

It is just past 8:42 AM Pacific Daylight Time, on Sunday June 12, 2005.

While sitting here grading final exams, I just felt a decent size earthquake here in Huntington Beach. I'll have to wait to see what the magnitude was, but I get the feeling that it was not quite a 6.0. But my butt may not be properly calibrated this morning! /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

There's still time for a bigger one before July!

RMT
 
Re: California Quake

Here is the computer generated report from the quake. A seismologist is going to have to confirm the magnitude, so it may go up after review!

Computer-generated earthquake report.

"A moderate earthquake occurred at 8:41:46 AM (PDT) on Sunday, June 12, 2005.
The magnitude 5.6 event occurred 9 km (6 miles) ESE of Anza, CA.
The hypocentral depth is 14 km ( 8 miles). "

Pretty close to my 6.0 prediction!

RMT
 
Re: California Quake

While those in other threads keep looking at Yellowstone, based on "interpretations", the 7.0 off the coast of Eureka CA last night is yet another piece of evidence to support my own prediction model.

Granted, my prediction has been for a quake in the Central-Southern CA areas, and this quake was off the coast of northern CA. However, there can be errors in timeframes and errors in locations. While I'd admit I had a sizeable error in location for this 7.0, I am also not willing to admit the shaking is over.

Rather than watching Yellowstone, I'd advise you keep an eye on California. I'm still convinced we will see more here in the Central-Southern CA areas before July.

RMT
 
Re: California Quake

And the validations of my predictive model and techniques continues to come in, folks. I will be accepting job offers as this decade's new prophet of earthquake doom. No reasonable offers will be refused! /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Just felt an earthquake sitting here at my desk. And as it turns out it was here in the Southland, currently being reported as a 5.3:

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/ci14155260.htm

But I still don't think it is over, folks. We are just getting warmed up!
RMT
 
Re: California Quake

Does your model cover SoCal only or do you know anything about New Madrid or Aleutian Islands area?
The answer to New Madrid is a definite no, and the answer to Aleutian Islands is "not currently, but it could be expanded to include them."

I've given some of the basis of my model above, namely that it is based only on the Pacfic tectonic plate and the events that have occurred around it. To give a little more info on my model, it is physically implemented in MATLAB as a recursive algorithm. I've modeled the entire Pacific plate but concentrated the details of fault modeling on the California edge of this plate with the highest fidelity of fault line modeling based on the San Andreas fault and the smaller faults that intersect it and are near it. That is the static part of the model. The dynamic part of the model is driven by thermal gradients and the energy flows that they create in the earth's crust. I have a large data table that is populated with average daily temperatures for several cities in this area over a complete annual cycle. Data that was easy to come by. What I believe is the most important mechanism in the model is the "simulated annealing" algorithm that I have incorporated in a recursive manner. It is an AI technique that I learned about several years ago when I took a UCLA course on chaos theory, neural nets, and fuzzy logic. You can google it to learn more, but its usefulness is in doing Monte Carlo analysis of a recursive model in such a way as to identify local energy minimums.

That's all the detail I am gonna give! /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif
RMT
 
Re: California Quake

its usefulness is in doing Monte Carlo analysis of a recursive model in such a way as to identify local energy minimums.

I remember Monte Carlo from when I tried (and failed) to learn about Markov Chains from internet tutorials. This really interesting stuff. Is this technique commonly used or a personal invention? I don't think I've ever heard of it being used before (But then again, I get my EQ knowledge from guests on Coast to Coast am).
 
Re: California Quake

Hi Newbie,
Is this technique commonly used or a personal invention?
Depends on what you mean by "this". Monte Carlo analysis is quite common, even without using AI techniques like simulated annealing. I've used Monte Carlo simulations to establish the mean touchdown point and the standard deviation of the scatter of touchdown points for aircraft automatic landing systems in past work I have done. Simulated annealing is not as common as Monte Carlo, but you can find plenty of people that are using it, and some even for earthquake analysis. Here is a guy at CalTech that has applied it to ensure he found absolute energy minimums, rather than local minima.

I think what I would call my own, personal twist in this model is using these techniques for predictions with the energy forcing function being represented by thermal stresses and thermal gradients. I am convinced that it is this feature, when married to the Monte Carlo &amp; simulated annealing recursive compuations, that permitted me to achieve accuracy in my time predictions for when these events would occur (the May-July timeframe). If my model continues to be validated through the summer, I should be able to possibly make some more predictions for the "other side" of the annual thermal cycle in SoCal which would be in the SEP to early NOV time period later this year. However, I will not make any such predictions until I have been able to analyze the activity during this thermal cycle, which should conclude in early to mid July.

Stay tuned...more predictions may be coming at the end of this summer!
RMT
 
Re: California Quake

Out of curiosity, what kind of hardware runs the simulations?
IBM IntelliStation Z Pro.

Specs: Xeon 3.2GHz(1MB L3 cache), 2x 512MB memory, 36.4GB 10,000 rpm SCSI, DVD-CD RW, FDD, Broadcom Ethernet, 1394, WIN XP, NVIDIA Quadro FX 1100


RMT
 
Re: California Quake

Specs: Xeon 3.2GHz(1MB L3 cache), 2x 512MB memory, 36.4GB 10,000 rpm SCSI, DVD-CD RW, FDD, Broadcom Ethernet, 1394, WIN XP, NVIDIA Quadro FX 1100

what a piece of junk system, and a 36.4 gig 10k scsi drive? Why in the hell would anyone want that, unless these are dual stripped drives its useless to have 1 scsi drive. I think your knowledge of computers is not as great as your knowledge of physics. Stick with what ya know LOL, just giving you a hard time RMT. But you seem to have left out some key specs that really determine how powerful a machine is, mainly what type of ram, speed, single/dual speed processors? 32/64 bit? and where do you mention the FSB?

Luckily this power computer is running WinXP (LOL).
 
Re: California Quake

Hiya Ren,

I think your knowledge of computers is not as great as your knowledge of physics.
Well, I would definitely cop to that charge, your honor! /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif Like I mentioned in another thread, I know just enough about computers and OS's to be dangerous...but I am definitely no expert.

But you seem to have left out some key specs that really determine how powerful a machine is, mainly what type of ram, speed, single/dual speed processors? 32/64 bit? and where do you mention the FSB?
To exhibit even more of my computer neophytism (and laziness), the specs I gave were nothing more than a cut-and-paste from the IBM support web page for the model number that I typed in! All I know is that this same model of computer is what we use at Northrop-Grumman for running our 6-DOF aircraft simulations. That is why I bought it, so work I do at home is compatible with what I do at work. Pretty weak excuse, I know, but it keeps my life simple!


RMT
 
My Predictions: Close, but not Spot-on!

OK, so I am going to do something different than what the author behind John Titor did: I am going to stand-up and admit when my educated-guess-based predictions for the future (earthquakes in California) were not fulfilled to the level which I had predicted.

As I write this, it is already July 3rd on the east coast of the US. And to recall the specifics of my earthquake predictions I had called for: a 6.0 or greater magnitude earthquake in the localized area of San Francisco to San Diego from the mid-May timeframe (~15 May) up to the early July (~1 July) timeframe. An earthquake within those specific geo-temporal ranges did not occur, I admit it. But there were some pretty significant earthquakes (in the 5-7 range) within the predicted time period, but not all of them were within the predicted localized geographic area.

And then there was even this event in the past day near Nicaragua that was pretty significant:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2005/usaaad/

Certainly my predictive model is not "perfect", whatever that is. However, I do believe my theory of thermal stresses due to local solar maximum temperatures holds some merit. My model is now telling me that, due to lessening thermal stress rates of change in the northern hemisphere, that we will not see any more significant earthquake activity in the California region until the thermal gradients again reach a maximum...

The time when the thermal gradients in the earth's crust will next reach their maximum in the California region will be in the mid-September (15-SEP) until the early November (1-NOV) timeframe.

I'll make my next earthquake predictions around Labor Day!
RMT
 
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