RainmanTime
Super Moderator
Hi Darby,
As I am sure you suspect...it gets better. The AGW house is truly crumbling right now. Too bad the new administration is ignoring the writing on the wall and pressing forward with its bad-science-based agenda. And they bashed Bush for ignoring reality? It is to laugh.
So here is the latest person to step forward and call BS on AGW:
Forecasting Guru Announces: "No scientific basis for forecasting climate"
<font color="red"> Today yet another scientist has come forward with a press release saying that not only did their audit of IPCC forecasting procedures and found that they "violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting", but that "The models were not intended as forecasting models and they have not been validated for that purpose." This organization should know, they certify forecasters for many disciplines and in conjunction with John Hopkins University if Washington, DC, offer a Certificate of Forecasting Practice. [/COLOR]
No doubt the AGW zealots will put this on heavy "ignore and do not address"...
<font color="red"> What these two authorities, Drs Theon and Armstrong, are independently and explicitly stating is that the computer models underpinning the work of many scientific institutions concerned with global warming, including Australia's CSIRO, are fundamentally flawed.
In today's statement, made with economist Kesten Green, Dr Armstrong provides the following eight reasons as to why the current IPCC computer models lack a scientific basis:
1. No scientific forecasts of the changes in the Earth's climate.
2. Improper peer review process.
3. Complexity and uncertainty of climate render expert opinions invalid for forecasting.
4. Forecasts are needed for the effects of climate change.
5. Forecasts are needed of the costs and benefits of alternative actions that might be taken to combat climate change.
7. The climate system is stable.
8. Be conservative and avoid the precautionary principle.
[/COLOR]
Number 7 is my favorite from a technical standpoint, since it deals with feedback loops. Something I work with day in and day out...and something that many "climatologists" can only barely do the LaPlace math for...
<font color="red"> To assess stability, we examined the errors from naïve forecasts for up to 100 years into the future. Using the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre's data, we started with 1850 and used that year's average temperature as our forecast for the next 100 years. We then calculated the errors for each forecast horizon from 1 to 100. We repeated the process using the average temperature in 1851 as our naïve forecast for the next 100 years, and so on. This "successive updating" continued until year 2006, when we forecasted a single year ahead. This provided 157 one-year-ahead forecasts, 156 two-year-ahead and so on to 58 100-year-ahead forecasts.
We then examined how many forecasts were further than 0.5°C from the observed value. Fewer than 13% of forecasts of up to 65-years-ahead had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C. For longer horizons, fewer than 33% had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C. Given the remarkable stability of global mean temperature, it is unlikely that there would be any practical benefits from a forecasting method that provided more accurate forecasts.[/COLOR]
The process they describe here provides hard-to-refute evidence that there are stabilizing (negative feedback) loops built-in to the climate system. Dr. Roy Spencer has written about this at length, and points out that the IPCC climate models (all of them) consistently model cloud effects as a positive (destabilizing) feedback gain. If this were true, the world would have gone divergent long before man showed up because of all the CO2 dumped into the atmosphere by volcanos.
RMT
Thanks for posting the Coleman information.
As I am sure you suspect...it gets better. The AGW house is truly crumbling right now. Too bad the new administration is ignoring the writing on the wall and pressing forward with its bad-science-based agenda. And they bashed Bush for ignoring reality? It is to laugh.
So here is the latest person to step forward and call BS on AGW:
Forecasting Guru Announces: "No scientific basis for forecasting climate"
<font color="red"> Today yet another scientist has come forward with a press release saying that not only did their audit of IPCC forecasting procedures and found that they "violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting", but that "The models were not intended as forecasting models and they have not been validated for that purpose." This organization should know, they certify forecasters for many disciplines and in conjunction with John Hopkins University if Washington, DC, offer a Certificate of Forecasting Practice. [/COLOR]
No doubt the AGW zealots will put this on heavy "ignore and do not address"...
<font color="red"> What these two authorities, Drs Theon and Armstrong, are independently and explicitly stating is that the computer models underpinning the work of many scientific institutions concerned with global warming, including Australia's CSIRO, are fundamentally flawed.
In today's statement, made with economist Kesten Green, Dr Armstrong provides the following eight reasons as to why the current IPCC computer models lack a scientific basis:
1. No scientific forecasts of the changes in the Earth's climate.
2. Improper peer review process.
3. Complexity and uncertainty of climate render expert opinions invalid for forecasting.
4. Forecasts are needed for the effects of climate change.
5. Forecasts are needed of the costs and benefits of alternative actions that might be taken to combat climate change.
7. The climate system is stable.
8. Be conservative and avoid the precautionary principle.
[/COLOR]
Number 7 is my favorite from a technical standpoint, since it deals with feedback loops. Something I work with day in and day out...and something that many "climatologists" can only barely do the LaPlace math for...
<font color="red"> To assess stability, we examined the errors from naïve forecasts for up to 100 years into the future. Using the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre's data, we started with 1850 and used that year's average temperature as our forecast for the next 100 years. We then calculated the errors for each forecast horizon from 1 to 100. We repeated the process using the average temperature in 1851 as our naïve forecast for the next 100 years, and so on. This "successive updating" continued until year 2006, when we forecasted a single year ahead. This provided 157 one-year-ahead forecasts, 156 two-year-ahead and so on to 58 100-year-ahead forecasts.
We then examined how many forecasts were further than 0.5°C from the observed value. Fewer than 13% of forecasts of up to 65-years-ahead had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C. For longer horizons, fewer than 33% had absolute errors larger than 0.5°C. Given the remarkable stability of global mean temperature, it is unlikely that there would be any practical benefits from a forecasting method that provided more accurate forecasts.[/COLOR]
The process they describe here provides hard-to-refute evidence that there are stabilizing (negative feedback) loops built-in to the climate system. Dr. Roy Spencer has written about this at length, and points out that the IPCC climate models (all of them) consistently model cloud effects as a positive (destabilizing) feedback gain. If this were true, the world would have gone divergent long before man showed up because of all the CO2 dumped into the atmosphere by volcanos.
RMT