creedo299
Epochal Historian
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/bbs/message.php?message=381959&mpage=1&topic=3&showdate=7/15/04&replies=7
Proton flare! Xrays up 1000x in 10 days!
We are believed to be on the downside of the 11 year Solar cycle, where solar activity drops to near zero. Instead the Sun is waking up! It bears watching over the next few weeks because this could just be the beginning. Pole shift or killshot, anyone?
There are three speeds of particles which come off the Sun from which we measure solar activity.
The fastest are Xrays which travel at the speed of light and take about 6 minutes to reach Earth. Typically the first indication that something has happened on the Sun. The M6 Xray flare earlier today was the biggest flare in months and is well over 1000 times the levels of ten days ago.
The second fastest particles are called superfast of energetic particles, which are accelerated to high speeds in the solar explosion. These take anywhere from 30 minutes to 12 hours to reach Earth, and are measured as proton flux. Significant variations in proton flux qualifies as a proton flare. The levels of proton flux is up 10 times in the past few hours due to todays flare. The proton flare in progress is the biggest one in months.
The slowest particles contains the bulk of the matter ejected from the Sun in solar events, and take about 18 hours to 4 days to reach the Earth. These incoming particles are often spotted on satellite imagery and are known as coronal mass ejections (CME´s).
It is curious that NOAA´s Space Environment Center has not identified any CME from todays M6 flare, yet the superfast proton levels are noticably elevated. Usually if the superfast protons have arrived at Earth, you can bet the slower ones are soon to follow. Superfast particles are often the best indicators that something else is headed our way. Chances for Auroras will probably increase for Wednesday and Thursday night due to todays events.
Bottom line, we are undergoing the highest solar activity in months. From new regions just emerging on the edge of the Sun. These will be geoeffective towards Earth for the next couple weeks. And satellite imagery which can "see through" the Sun indicates there are even more massive sunspots on the backside of the Sun which will soon come into view.
Here are some graphs of this highly unusual activity. Note the extremely low levels on this 3 day plot beginning July 3rd-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040705_xray.gif
Things were low until the mysterious backside CME observed visually on July 9th. This curiously did not register as an Xray flare, but caused an unusual smoothing of the Xray plot for 48 hours. I don´t recall anything quite like it-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040709_xray.gif
Then on July 11th at 0600 UT, the Xray plot spiked dramatically in minutes to very active activity where it has remained since. The spike was almost like an Xray "shockwave". I don´t recall anything like that either-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040711_xray.gif
And then todays Xray plot, which shows the biggest Xray flare in months, with levels over 1000 times that of 10 days ago-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040713_xray.gif
Why haven´t we found evidence of other advanced civilisations in the universe? Some scientists say it may be because life may be more precious than we think, since our Sun is unusually stable. Most stars like our Sun have periodic massive outbursts of flaring, and the radiation from that would surely destroy all life as we know it. Could our Sun become like other stars, and emit deadly bursts of radiation? Xrays and superfast particals would kill all life on the sunside of the Earth in minutes. Then when the massive CME killshot arrives in 2-3 days, it will finish off the rest of us with even more prolonged waves of radiation, possibly even a poleshift.
This is how things work in the rest of the universe. Our star has been quiet so far, but it might be waking up. Keep an eye out for the next few weeks. We could be in for a bumpy ride!-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html
Proton flare! Xrays up 1000x in 10 days!
We are believed to be on the downside of the 11 year Solar cycle, where solar activity drops to near zero. Instead the Sun is waking up! It bears watching over the next few weeks because this could just be the beginning. Pole shift or killshot, anyone?
There are three speeds of particles which come off the Sun from which we measure solar activity.
The fastest are Xrays which travel at the speed of light and take about 6 minutes to reach Earth. Typically the first indication that something has happened on the Sun. The M6 Xray flare earlier today was the biggest flare in months and is well over 1000 times the levels of ten days ago.
The second fastest particles are called superfast of energetic particles, which are accelerated to high speeds in the solar explosion. These take anywhere from 30 minutes to 12 hours to reach Earth, and are measured as proton flux. Significant variations in proton flux qualifies as a proton flare. The levels of proton flux is up 10 times in the past few hours due to todays flare. The proton flare in progress is the biggest one in months.
The slowest particles contains the bulk of the matter ejected from the Sun in solar events, and take about 18 hours to 4 days to reach the Earth. These incoming particles are often spotted on satellite imagery and are known as coronal mass ejections (CME´s).
It is curious that NOAA´s Space Environment Center has not identified any CME from todays M6 flare, yet the superfast proton levels are noticably elevated. Usually if the superfast protons have arrived at Earth, you can bet the slower ones are soon to follow. Superfast particles are often the best indicators that something else is headed our way. Chances for Auroras will probably increase for Wednesday and Thursday night due to todays events.
Bottom line, we are undergoing the highest solar activity in months. From new regions just emerging on the edge of the Sun. These will be geoeffective towards Earth for the next couple weeks. And satellite imagery which can "see through" the Sun indicates there are even more massive sunspots on the backside of the Sun which will soon come into view.
Here are some graphs of this highly unusual activity. Note the extremely low levels on this 3 day plot beginning July 3rd-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040705_xray.gif
Things were low until the mysterious backside CME observed visually on July 9th. This curiously did not register as an Xray flare, but caused an unusual smoothing of the Xray plot for 48 hours. I don´t recall anything quite like it-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040709_xray.gif
Then on July 11th at 0600 UT, the Xray plot spiked dramatically in minutes to very active activity where it has remained since. The spike was almost like an Xray "shockwave". I don´t recall anything like that either-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040711_xray.gif
And then todays Xray plot, which shows the biggest Xray flare in months, with levels over 1000 times that of 10 days ago-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/xray/20040713_xray.gif
Why haven´t we found evidence of other advanced civilisations in the universe? Some scientists say it may be because life may be more precious than we think, since our Sun is unusually stable. Most stars like our Sun have periodic massive outbursts of flaring, and the radiation from that would surely destroy all life as we know it. Could our Sun become like other stars, and emit deadly bursts of radiation? Xrays and superfast particals would kill all life on the sunside of the Earth in minutes. Then when the massive CME killshot arrives in 2-3 days, it will finish off the rest of us with even more prolonged waves of radiation, possibly even a poleshift.
This is how things work in the rest of the universe. Our star has been quiet so far, but it might be waking up. Keep an eye out for the next few weeks. We could be in for a bumpy ride!-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html