Theory China's Role in WW3: The Solar Power Economic Conflict

JudasTitor

JudasTitor

Temporal Navigator
JohnTitor mentioned that during WW3, Russia launched nuclear weapons against Europe, the US, and China. Fast forward to present day 2024 and there currently is a European army in Kursk, Russia, featuring NATO armament and American mercenaries.

How did China end up on the enemy list?

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you Russia's long-term economic enemy:

Solar panels & Electric cars

I know, right? It sounds silly, BUT, at present Diamondback Energy can purchase a pallet of 31 - 370 watt solar panels for $2,000.

The capital cost of natural gas power plants start at $450 per kilowatt on the cheap end for massive size scale.

31 panels × 370 watts = 11.47 kilowatts

$2,000 ÷ 11.47kW = $174.37 per kilowatt

Now you get about 5 hours of power out of those panels on a sunny day. 57.35 kilowatts per day. So obviously we still need the natural gas power plant at night, right?

All Chinese EV factories plan to roll out grid back-charging by 2026. Chinese EVs currently comprise 70% of all auto sales in China, and are expected to gain 100% domestic market control by January 2025.

Grid-back charging allows the owner to charge the car during the day using solar power, while powering the house at night via the EV battery, without need for an additional home battery bank, or an electric grid connection.

BUT EVs ARE TOO EXPENSIVE!

China has several models less than $20,000 and the model equivalent to the $45,000 GM Chevrolet Equinox EV is $20,000.

The United States consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day, producing 13 mbopd, and importing 7 mbopd. That 30% import extends US reserves from 5 years to 7 years. 2031. Russia has around 80 billion barrels and exports the majority of that production, 2nd only to Saudi Arabia. The US has 36 billion barrels left as the world's largest consumer of oil, consuming 20% of all oil produced daily.

The current war in Europe is a war for control of the supply of oil & natural gas to the EU, in the currency denomination of the US choosing. Is the US dollar worth anything if it can't be used to purchase oil and natural gas?

The middle kingdom is playing the long game. Their cheap EV & solar exports will dominate ALL markets moving forwards from July 2025 and leapfrog all oil & natural gas based demand production. Including Russia's oil & natural gas production.

$174.37 per kilowatt represents the end of OPEC, the $USD petrodollar, Russian exports to Europe, and any potential hope of any other nation ever repaying debts to China, ever.

$174.37 per kilowatt is too close to 177 for anyone here to ignore. Prepare yourselves accordingly.

-Diamondback out
 
"America installed batteries equivalent to 20 nuclear power plants"

There's a lot of things wrong or at least misleading in that one sentence. First power plants, whether coal, wind, geothermal, solar or nuclear generate electricity but they don't store the energy. Batteries and condensers store electricity but they don't generate electricity. So it's no more possible to equate batteries and power plants as it is to equate a gas tank and a motor. And my Bunny Rabbit D cell batteries can store the equivalent of 100 nuclear power plants if the power plants' output is small enough. The nutter narrating the video doesn't know what he's talking about. It's OK for him to be blonde - but he doesn't have to play the part so well.

What did happen is batteries with 20/80 Gw/h of total storage capacity have been installed across the entire US power grid over the past four years in order to stabilize solar and wind generation. It doesn't say what the energy density of the batteries is. It's good news relative to solar and wind but it doesn't address wither this new storage capacity is a result of advanced battery technology or how, at the batteries' end-of-life, the highly polluting heavy metals (lead) or light metals (lithium) will be disposed of or recycled. There is no free lunch. To fill the storage capacity you still have to generate the electricity.

Here's another clickbait video from The Electric Viking:

"New battery revealed in Canada that gives EVs over 5 million miles"​

]
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwJ2Qh9g9FI

So your electric vehicle is going to get "over 5 million miles" on a single charge. Sure. Assuming such a battery existed, if you left the battery on the charger for about 150 years and paid over $1 million to "charge 'er up, boys" you might get 5 million miles...and be a crew mate on the starship Enterprise while fighting Klingons. It's another clickbait video.


Here's the real story
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/li-ion-battery-five-million-miles

The researchers in Canada put some batteries to the test to study them. They had the batteries under constant load 24/7 - 365 for 6 years and 20,000 recharging cycles. "If it were fitted onto an electric vehicle (EV), this would roughly translate to a distance traveled of nearly five million miles (eight million km)."

Even the quoted last sentence from the real source is a stretch. If you drove 95 mph 24 hours a day for 6 years, never stopping for any reason then you would drive 4, 993,200 miles.

By now you should know that when I see these "fantastic" proclamations I will cross check and, if available, find the original source that was thereafter turned into clickbait by someone else. It's a hobby for me today. But for a large part of my adult life you wonderful taxpayers paid me to question and analyze certain sources of information and see if the information agrees with reality.
 
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EV battery life is rated in distance per charge, and total life of battery over years and millions of miles traveled total. Think of cab drivers buying Ford Crown Victoria's at police auction for $1,200 each, and rebuilding their engines every 350,000 miles.
 
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JudasTitor said:
EV battery life is rated in distance per charge, and total life of battery over years and millions of miles traveled total. Think of cab drivers buying Ford Crown Victoria's at police auction for $1,200 each, and rebuilding their engines every 350,000 miles.
Click to expand...

Good. Your getting better at this. The difference between batteries and your example is a cab driver can rebuild the engine in a Crown Vic. It's just an aside but a used police cruiser is trash. It goes well beyond the engine. It's every moving part and depending on the jurisdiction the body and frame.

Anyway, the cabbie can rebuild the engine. The cabbie can't rebuild a battery. Once it has exhausted its RUL (remaining useful life) its done. EV batteries are rated in miles traveled but that rating is for the consumer whom the EV sales departments believe are stupid cows who can't grasp a bit of science and have the news delivered in terms of remaining useful life. And there's another issue for the sales departments - as of today it is very, very difficult to predict the RUL for an EV battery. See the article at:

Recent advancement of remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery in electric vehicle applications: A review of modelling mechanisms, network configurations, factors, and outstanding issues​


M.S. Reza, M. Mannan, M. Mansor, T. M. Indra Mahlia, M.A. Hannan ScienceDirect, Energy Reports, Vol. II, June 2024, Pages 4824-4848

But that's not really the issue. The clown known as The Electric Viking seems to be purposely turning otherwise legitimate research articles into his own clickbait. His handling of the information makes the research appear to be something that it is not. The example above is his headline "8 Million Kilometer Battery". On the one hand he appears to want you to think that you'll get 8 million miles from a single charge. On the other hand you might conclude that he's saying the Canadian Research demonstrates that an EV can get 8 million miles of RUL out of the batteries. That's also not the case. Putting the batteries under a constant but static load for 6 years does not demonstrate the battery under variable loads, temperatures, temperature variations, etc. Anyway, you're observations are improving.
 
Darby said:
Good. Your getting better at this. The difference between batteries and your example is a cab driver can rebuild the engine in a Crown Vic. It's just an aside but a used police cruiser is trash. It goes well beyond the engine. It's every moving part and depending on the jurisdiction the body and frame.

Anyway, the cabbie can rebuild the engine. The cabbie can't rebuild a battery. Once it has exhausted its RUL (remaining useful life) its done. EV batteries are rated in miles traveled but that rating is for the consumer whom the EV sales departments believe are stupid cows who can't grasp a bit of science and have the news delivered in terms of remaining useful life. And there's another issue for the sales departments - as of today it is very, very difficult to predict the RUL for an EV battery. See the article at:

Recent advancement of remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery in electric vehicle applications: A review of modelling mechanisms, network configurations, factors, and outstanding issues​


M.S. Reza, M. Mannan, M. Mansor, T. M. Indra Mahlia, M.A. Hannan ScienceDirect, Energy Reports, Vol. II, June 2024, Pages 4824-4848

But that's not really the issue. The clown known as The Electric Viking seems to be purposely turning otherwise legitimate research articles into his own clickbait. His handling of the information makes the research appear to be something that it is not. The example above is his headline "8 Million Kilometer Battery". On the one hand he appears to want you to think that you'll get 8 million miles from a single charge. On the other hand you might conclude that he's saying the Canadian Research demonstrates that an EV can get 8 million miles of RUL out of the batteries. That's also not the case. Putting the batteries under a constant but static load for 6 years does not demonstrate the battery under variable loads, temperatures, temperature variations, etc. Anyway, you're observations are improving.
Click to expand...
Google Ai found the following insights:

As of February 2024, the Tesla with the highest mileage battery is a 2014 Model S that has driven 1,217,887 miles. However, there are other high-mileage Teslas, including:
A Tesla Model S that has driven 430,000 miles and is still running on its original battery and electric motors
A Tesla Model S taxi that has driven over 430,000 miles and is still running on its original battery, even though its motors have not been serviced
Here are some tips for prolonging the life of an electric car battery: Drive smoothly, Charge in a window, and Top-up slowly where possible.
Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, claims that every new Tesla battery should last between 300,000 and 500,000 miles. However, most Teslas don't achieve their EPA-rated range in real-world conditions.

Now to clarify the mileage on that 2014 model; it's on its 3rd battery, so an average of 500,000 miles per battery. Thats decade old tech. Where will the battery tech be in 2035? My suspicion is sodium batteries at 10% of the cost. That would make them so cheap that a new American EV would easily be priced in the $10,000 range; the current range of new entry level Chinese models.

The real issue here is cost of energy production. The cost of a solar power plant is less than 1/3rd - 1/10/th the cost of a natural gas power plant. The US has 5 years of domestic oil in the ground. That's why we're importing 7 million BOPD, extending that supply to 7 years.

And just to be clear, those Crown Vics were great. I knew a Cab service owner that rebuilt several engines at 350,000 miles. We used to beat the hell out of them too. The new Ford Explorers have water pumps ran by their timing chains, a serious design flaw. Also have faulty clutch push rod housings. Those EVs have far fewer moving parts and chances are that in 500,000 miles, that battery will be much cheaper, and last much longer than what we can produce today in 2025.
 
JudasTitor said:
Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, claims that every new Tesla battery should last between 300,000 and 500,000 miles.
Click to expand...
Good. You continue your improvement. Those numbers are a lot closer to being correct. But they are 1/16th to 1/24th the RUL that The Electric Viking tried to sell at 8 million miles. The reality is considering the average consumer and the sigma of the variations in environmental impacts that affect battery life the RUL is a lot closer to 150,000 miles than 300,000 miles. Well maintained vehicles operating in, say, Southern California weather will last the 300,000 miles. Well maintained vehicles in Montana or the Dakotas can expect the 150,000 range. Thermal stress and degradation in the hot summer and increased resistance in the cold winter will kill a battery long before its rated RUL.
 
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